"I think we all need to eat some crow with Greene."
@BeddieKU23 Uh, yes .. at present .. eating .. crow .. now. I hope I never stop.
"I think we all need to eat some crow with Greene."
@BeddieKU23 Uh, yes .. at present .. eating .. crow .. now. I hope I never stop.
I'll take five red pills on noticeable improvement this season, from this point forward - 1) Carlton Bragg, 2) Cheick Diallo, 3) Hunter Mickelson, 4) Brannen Greene, and 5) Devonte Graham.
But then again, I've always been a red pill guy ….
As much as I would like to agree in total -- I would offer a few points:
I agree with sustained excellence, but not with "against the odds."
Self said just last week that while he had won 11 straight Big 12 titles, he usually had the most talent. I can't think of one season where we did not have the most talent. Maybe Durant's season at Texas.
Of course, having the most talent is because Self recruited and got the most talent. That's a big deal.
I would venture to say, nationally, that when you look at rosters and player rankings, we have always had top 10 talent, and most of the times top 5 talent on the roster.
Self came to Kansas and received a "turn-key" operation. Roy left the program in great shape and Self walked into an elite program. Self has made the program his own, taken it to different heights (conference dominance and a national title). His is one of sustained excellence, as mentioned. This, to me, is his greatest legacy and what puts him on the cusp -- literally one national title away -- from being thought of as the second best coach in the country. Right now, I think coach K hold that mantle. The battle is between Self, Izzo, Roy and Pitino for #2.
Our roster this season has Perry Ellis #24, Frank Mason #76, Devonte Graham #36, Wayne Selden #12, Brannen Greene #26, Cheick Diallo #5, Carlton Bragg #21, Hunter Mickelson #100, Jamari Traylor #141, Svi Mykhailuk (unranked because he was from overseas), Legerald Vick (#51 - ESPN; didn't qualify to be ranked by rivals because he switched classes after final rankings), and Landen Lucas (unranked).
My perspective is to ask a) "what coach wouldn't have a national title contender with this roster?"; b ) "what rosters in CBB right now are better than Kansas' roster?"; and c) "would you trade our roster for any other CBB roster right now?"
My answers are a) Well, not the UC Irvine coach, probably not Scott Drew or Travis Ford, and I'm sure some others, but I think at least half of D-1 coaches would have this team at zero, one or two losses right now; b ) None; c) No.
Our roster, in my opinion, is far superior than UConn's in 2014; better than Louisville's in 2013; better than UConn in 2011; and I would love to see this perimeter attack/style of play against UK's 2012 team.
Actually, we should expect a national title this season. This is much different than the last two seasons. And not to be too contrarian here, but I don't really see how winning with the highly rated roster above, with multiple upper classmen, could approach the greatest coaching job in college basketball history. I just go back to our roster this season that is laden with top players.
When we start talking "stacks", we have five guys in the top 30 on our roster, another (Svi) would have been easily ranked in the top 30 if he would have been ranked. Three of those are upperclassmen. That seems like a "stack" to me, but I must admit, I perhaps don't understand "stacks."
Sustained excellence, no doubt. Against the odds? I don't think I agree there.
@jaybate-1.0 Or maybe your standards have increased???
@jaybate-1.0 Good stuff. Self put Drew over his knee and spanked his behind.
You said, "What could be better? Maybe a week of great sex with a beautiful woman?"
Funny, last year, you said the same thing I think -- but left out the "great" and the "beautiful" parts … but perhaps my memory is flawed ….
@dylans Hard to challenge the title winners, I agree. And Rush's defense was a huge asset. I like this group because of 1) Mason's penetration and ball handing (best ball handler I can recall), 2) Graham's shooting ability, 3) Selden being a better shooter than Brandon Rush, better off the dribble, and more assertive, 4) Greene being a better shooter than anyone on the 2008 team, and 5) the added depth that Svi provides, that the 2008 team didn't have. I also think that this team is still moving towards its consistent peak. Yesterday was a amazing, and its consistent peak, of course, is below that a bit. But getting Greene established as the 4th perimeter player, and the fact that teams won't be able to effectively scheme against him (because we now have more credible threats elsewhere) -- I like this group.
But again, that NC group in 2008 is on the peak until someone knocks them off.
@JayHawkFanToo Hmm .. not on Comcast. I was then stuck in the same fix that @wissoxfan83 was discussing. A CBS website that did not show the game. But the TWC sports channel did replay the entire game, so the I got to see what I missed.
@wissoxfan83 Great points -- rebounding and defense. We will bump into some tough match ups defensively, where we'll have a tough time stopping certain players. But that's where we'll need our offense to carry us. Making shots can be a good thing.
@DinarHawk Right. I really like those comparisons. I looked at it from a ranking standpoint a few days ago. UConn in '14 had the #10 ranked PF (DeAndre Daniels -- not a bulky guy at all), then #118 Phillip Nolan and unranked Amida Brimah (7 footer who was a "new to the game" recruit). In 2011, UConn had Alex Oriakhi in the middle, a #21 player, Tyler Olander (unranked), and Roscoe Smith (#37). Louisville in 2013 had Gorgui Dieng (#44), Chane Behanan (#21), and Montrezl Harrell (#82), and Steven Van Treese (unranked). Other than that, going back quite a ways, the NCAA champs had highly ranked post players. If we do not rely on Bragg and Diallo, we'd most comparable to UConn in 2014 (which you pointed out). Duke in 2010 did not have that big stud in the middle, also a you mentioned. But if you look at rankings, they had Brian Zoubek #24, Kyle Singlar #5, Lance Thomas #42, and Miles Plumlee #101. Again, though, as you mentioned, no monster in the middle. I think our squad is more like UConn 2014 right now with our perimeter play.
@Bwag - Yesterday is the type of game that I would expect from our post players. Think about the per minute stuff. Then project Diallo over 18 minutes. 12 points, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks. Or Bragg over 20 -- 12 points, 6 rebounds. I know that isn't how it works all the time, but I do think that is entirely plausible. Paired with Mick and Ellis, that's a real composite we could sink our teeth into.
Some Baylor Post Game:
8-1 Lead: The first few minutes of the KU/Baylor game really did happen -- kind of like the tree falling in the forest and making a sound. I tried logging on to CBS's site, and was treated to a continuous role of commercials for CBS programs I won't ever watch. But the game log proves that it happened. I just wish CBS and other networks would put together a quick video summary of the scoring. How hard is that? Or at least verbally recap what had happened. And how hard would it be to add a little look-in feed in the corner of the screen during the game that is finishing, for the markets affected by the run over games? Ugh.
Svi vs. Greene: A battle few of us saw Greene winning, but win it he has. Unsure of the status of Greene's thumb, but Greene looked great today. Terrific, really. He showed the ability to slide defensively, guarding Baylor's quick guard effectively a few times. He also drove the ball with some confidence. Created a hoop. With Greene, we just need some improvement in those other phases to compliment his marksmanship from long range. It appeared to me (as noted in my post from Thursday, that Green had won the 4th rotation spot. The 5th guy gets scraps. Let's hope Greene stays on Self's page.
Mickelson: What a terrific game. Going against an all-conference level player (Gathers) and a quick post player, Mick gave Kansas exactly what it needed. Competent defense in the middle, a guy that can block and change shots, and a guy that hustles and compliments our skilled perimeter. Nice line. The best choice to start next to Ellis to be sure. Mick is like adding a new post player. He was a non-factor last season. I sure hope Self keeps him in the starting spot. Couldn't be happier for the kid getting his well deserved chance.
Post Rotation: Self went away from the path he led us down -- that everyone wouldn't play. @jaybate-1.0 called this correctly. For those suggesting Self would go off merit, I hope you saw who the first big off the bench was -- Carlton Bragg. If Bragg didn't know what he was doing, or if he was lagging in practice, or if he was too skinny, why would Self put him in FIRST? The fact is, Bragg is ready now. He just needs the fine-tuning of experience. In the second half, Self went primarily with Ellis and Mick. Lucas spelled Mick, and JT finished the game from the 5:00 minute mark until "scrub" time. I (of course) would have preferred Bragg at the 5:00 minute mark. JT had done nothing to that point, but did have nice poke away and great block (who we all saw coming -- little guard should have dished). When JT plays 10 minutes or less that's a sample size that fits well for him. And we all want Diallo to play, I think. But when he's gunning up 17 footers, it's not a persuasive element of his case. His stretch in the first half gave us the ups and downs. Made jumper. A nice high/low pass to Lucas. Great block leading to fast break hoop. One board. A couple missed shots that weren't the best bets, and a foul. But I hope those that are against playing Diallo now see how he can impact the game, and really his limited first half stretch framed the discussion. Peaks and valleys. But elements that Lucas, for example, can never bring. Diallo represents the path to this team's ceiling THIS SEASON. Fortune favors the bold -- or so I've heard.
Mason/Graham: This season has led to one unmistakable conclusion -- All I can say is "thank you Nic Moore." SMU's Moore reminded Self of the path, and reinforced his prior stated view that playmaking is invaluable. If Moore had flopped with Mason in the WUGs, we might not have what we have now. This is a dynamic backcourt. Remember when Self referenced playing small before last season, when we also had CF? Then he said that the playing small thing was not in the cards after CF left -- implying that his statements were related to personnel? Well I'm glad he stuck with it now. I loved the idea of moving Selden to the three. A view I have held since late last season, mainly framed during the "Selden is not a point guard" discussions that were held here. Selden is the "big wing" that Self said he was. When Selden was excluded from the press break, that's code for "big wing." And Wiggins and Oubre handcuffed Self to an extent. What if Self would have started Tharpe and Mason, or Tharpe and CF in 2013-14, and brought Selden off the bench? What if Self benched Selden last season (as he should have -- letting him come off the bench) and inserted Graham? I don't know. But I do know now that this team's engine is the Mason/Graham duo. This is special. It is my favorite composite perimeter group I can recall at Kansas.
Playing To Our Strength: Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I submit to you, as Exhibit A, the Kansas/Baylor contest of January 2, 2016. I ask that you return a verdict finding 1) that KU's strength is its outside shooting, 2) that KU should continue to play to its strength all season with focused resolve even if there are bumps in the road, and 3) that term "Fool's Gold" be forever banned from further discussion. This is an easy case. The verdict was actually returned about this time last season. Apparently there was an appeal. Those take time. But the court's order is now in effect and Self is willingly abiding by the court's order, it appears.
Ball Movement and Pace: While we know we can shoot, this team is an animal when it comes to ball movement and pace. I will be very interested as to what occurs when an aggressive defensive team disregards the back cuts and overplays. The team that comes to mind is the 2007 Southern Illinois Salukis (we played them in the NCAAs that season). One of the best defensive teams I've seen, and they played in your jock. Not near it, in it. I guess the game I'll be interested in is at Texas Tech. Tubby Smith is a master at controlling pace, and TT seems to have a decent squad. K-State might try to slow us down, but they are low on personnel.
Set Plays/Self: I counted four clear set plays that led to baskets (and I was casually looking for it). We had a sweet inbounds play for a basket, as usual. Seriously, we can't take for granted the opportunities that Self creates for the team when he focuses on that. What I mean is that in some years, I think he purposefully makes the team run its offense without the help of set plays throughout the game. This season -- and I haven't kept track -- it just seems like there are more set plays being called. I don't know what anyone else thinks there. One other item: We were exquisitely prepared for our conference opener. That credit goes to one man, the coach. Can anyone have hoped for a more prepare team today? It was an impressive notice to the rest of the conference. As usual, this whole deal runs through AFH.
Gathers vs. Mamadou: I would pay to see that one on one battle. Gathers is a skilled brute. Mamadou a freak of nature. I'd bet on Gathers, of course. Actually, think about Gathers playing the 4 and Mamadou at the 5 for Kansas. We might never shoot another three. Mamadou, for what its worth, was wildly underutilized by UC-Irvine. How many times did their guards penetrate and literally all they had to do was flip the ball in the air? How many set plays or screens were done for Mamadou? It is not hard to script say six plays. Pass to Mamadou on the block and have him immediately bounce the ball to draw the double and script a cutter or rotation play through the double. How bout back screen? Or box to box screen? Or Mamadou flashing, then spinning around to the basket for the lob? Saw nothing from UC Irvine. I watched the game again on TWC sports channel (yes, I'm glad I have it now). By the way, Mamadou is his first name, right? Sounds good to me. I ask this in all seriousness, is he a member of the Zulu tribe? I rode the Zulu at World's of Fun a few times, but that's the extent of my experience there. That is what's called a tangent.
Oklahoma on Monday: So let me get this straight. A bunch of settlers raced in wagons to Oklahoma to be there "Sooner" than everyone else, to stake their claim for land in a barren, dust bowl landscape, devoid of any real natural beauty, in the middle of Tornado Alley (or Tornado Hell), that now is subject to the most earthquakes per square mile in the world? And they have just one major sports team? Whatever. Kansas might be a bit comparable, I guess, but we do have AFH. That's a trump card. This will at least give Buddy Hield a chance to meet the Big 12 player of year again in person (Wayne Selden).
I had waited a bit to see if someone else got a post game thread running -- at my wife's suggestion. She wanted to go to dinner. But seeing nothing was started, our dinner date was delayed. She's used to it … not happy, but used to it. She understands that it's hoops season and the world revolves around KU hoops. Greatest time of the year. I think it's her choice of restaurants tonight, though.
@Statmachine Understand that when I said it was just common sense, I was conveying that in support of your sensible post -- meaning it's hard for me to understand how others can't see your logic.
You also as "why" at the end? It's easy, if I'm an OAD I wouldn't want to come to Kansas. As an OAD, I want my draft stock improved. There is just OAD that has ever come here and arguably had his draft stock improved -- Embiid. Wiggins held serve. Embiid was still very high (per Pitino's comment in summer of 2013), Selby dropped, X dropped, Cliff dropped, Oubre dropped. And BMac was not a presumed OAD.
The same qualities that folks are applauding in Self choosing "experience" now is exactly why an OAD would look to other programs. Fine with me. Look somewhere else.
Where Self is really in his zone is with guys like Marcus, TRob, Bmac, Markieff, Cole, Jackson, Arthur, Rush, Withey, etc. You bring in excellent players and they develop. Self will develop a guy when he has them for a couple of seasons. And he can win consistently with them. His 2012 team is the perfect model, in my opinion. 2008 had no OADs, though many thought Rush would turn pro.
To me, that would be a great selling point for the next tier. Just do it his way, the way he does it best.
@jaybate-1.0 The only reason to take a presumed OAD is if you think they will significantly impact your program now. In one year. No "raw". No massive development curve. Now.
So …. you know my next question, don't you?
@Statmachine You said, "The best training you can get is hands on and on the job training to best prepare you for the road ahead." This is seriously just common sense.
Does anyone remember Marquis Teague from Kentucky in 2012? A guy that Cal kept the lineup. When we played UK early in the season, he was really bad. Looked out of place. Turnovers. Had some major struggles. There was a nationally televised game vs. Louisville later in the year. He was absolutely horrible. But Cal stuck with him, kept playing him.
Part of this is that UK didn't have much choice because Teague was about all they had at PG. But the point is that he improved immensely over the season. And if coach Self simply didn't have his two security blankets, what would Self be doing right now? What would he have to do?
We'd just be better off in the final analysis if coach Self did not have even have the option of falling back on his security blankets. That's just my opinion.
I agree with you completely, as you know. I would differentiate OADs vs. guys that will stay a second season. Diallo vs. Bragg. It would seem to me that simply avoiding those presumed OADs is really pretty easy to do. But geez, Diallo is being handled like a three year guy right now. Really, why bother? See Cliff -- why bother?It's all a big distraction. It was a big distraction leading up to the season with Diallo. I don't need it, and I don't want it.
Truth be told, and sorry about being harsh, but I would have much preferred we not even sign Diallo; but rather, have another non-presumed OAD in the fold.
Maybe I should take my own advice when I suggested in October we act like Diallo doesn't exist, that we can just win without him?
It brings me back to the Tyler Davis discussion. Simply tell the kid that if he commits and signs, he is our guy. Period. No signing of OADs in the spring. We won't get sucked in if an opportunity presents itself. Program building recruiting -- that fits with our coach's temperament and requirements.
@DinarHawk - Quick question, remember how Tarik Black struggled with the new rules enforcement in 2013-14? He was a fouling machine early. And really, he learned, as a senior, by experience. By playing and getting used to it. Also, importantly, "experience" makes mistakes too. But guys like Diallo will impact the game with activity and shot blocking, and the "net" might be better even with mistakes. Let's look at Lucas, our designated post defender. Have you ever seen him really challenge a shot? Is he explosive vertically? Sure, he's in good position, fundamentally sound. He uses his tools, and he defends with positioning. But that's really it. I would argue that a guy like Diallo may be out of position more, but he's quicker, can re-position, and he can better challenge shots. I'm not saying that Diallo is a better defender now than Lucas overall. I'm just saying that it isn't going to take much for Diallo, with his natural talents and "y-axis" explosion, to surpass the slow footed, "x-axis" Lucas (credit to @drgnslayer on that one). Always appreciate your perspective on things.
A few follow-ups -- One day to Baylor. Really appreciate the great discussion:
Practice and Game Experience Go Together: Remember, when one suggests that game experience is needed, that statement is NOT suggesting that practice is not important. Speaking for myself, when I suggest game experience is extremely important, I'm assuming that the players in question participate in all practices and because they are actually inserted in games, they have met Self's threshold for playing. Self has never said these guys aren't getting it in practice. Further, I believe very strongly that practice is very important. However, there is no replication of game experience in practice. It just can't be done. So the suggestion of game experience goes together with practice. Keegan, for example, suggests that playing time has NO impact on the "light going on." Again, who thinks that? Anyone?
Psychological Harm?: When @jaybate-1.0 points out the harm for playing someone too soon, he's right. Back a few years ago, perhaps on the kusports.com site, I mentioned the example of the pitcher that is rushed to the majors and incurs irreparable damage due to the experience. I generally believe that someone who is damaged psychologically over a long period of time like that, probably wouldn't have made it anyway.
My Point Is Comparison To Other Programs, Other Coaches: However, in our situation, Self has never said that Diallo and Bragg aren't ready in that way -- that this is too much for them. And really, are we actually to believe that when we look at the top 25 recruits this season (and really the top 30), and then adding in Cliff's similar placement among the recruits last season, that it's just the guys at KU who aren't ready? That's more of what I'm pointing out. We are to believe that its the players and not the coach? Self is having issues playing post players that make mistakes and who need that trial by fire to develop, when he has "experience" there that is perhaps more steady. It's exactly the same when he had Reed and Brady. He's having the same struggle.
Difference In Ceiling: I firmly believe that playing Diallo will not cause the guy any harm, and that the mix of game experience and continued practice (exposure to the game) is the best formula here. But it's a great question. When @jaybate-1.0 says that Diallo doesn't seem to learn much from his playing time, that is very hard to tell. It is the accrual of information and experience. You keep chopping wood. The difference between Diallo and Traylor (as @jaybate-1.0 cited Traylor as not improving much) is that Diallo has this very high ceiling everyone acknowledges, where Traylor has clearly bumped up against his. Players have varying talent levels. Traylor's doing about as good as he can do. When a player stops improving, the ceiling might be near. Thus why I wouldn't even play him with a high talent dude in the wings. Heck, if we got to late February and Diallo was horrific, Self could flip back to Traylor if he wanted. I suspect that Self will continue to play Diallo-- just at 10 mpg instead of the 20 some of us might want. I just think with Diallo it's settling in and getting comfortable. I really think that Self is in tune with wanting to develop Diallo, and I bet he knows that his NC chances are increased significantly if Diallo does develop. I hope that's his intention. Diallo will have a game where he goes 14 points, 9 boards, and Self will play him 20. It will happen, and I bet it happens in January. With Bragg, he's just flat ready right now. If Ellis were to be injured, Self would start Bragg at the 4. I firmly believe that. We'll see a lot of Bragg I bet.
Svi?: The citation of Svi, and Svi not improving greatly seems more accurate to me. We're not seeing a ton of improvement. But the light going on, so to speak, is within reach. We see can see flashes.
Selden Example: Now, @jaybate-1.0 point may be more demonstrated by Selden. Did throwing Selden into the fire harm his development? Would Selden have been better of playing behind, say, Elijah Johnson at the 2 spot for a season? And I think that's what is being said about Diallo. My point is that Diallo needs to play rotation level minutes. I concede the "starting him" thing right now. But as the 3rd/4th big? I feel pretty solid about that.
Remember, we have discussed whether they might be damaged, whether they have good team chemistry, whether they are part of the team concept -- why are we searching so very hard for the explanation here? The explanation is simple in my mind and it is one that we have known forever: Self loves experience. He likes what he knows. Now a number of the elements discussed certainly play into that. But simply because Self loves experience does not mean that the experience is the right choice in the scope of the season. Really, that's a pretty easy acknowledgment I would think. It's just an acknowledgment that Self, doing it his way, could be wrong; particularly when other top coaches do it differently.
The fact is, that other teams commit to playing "talent". And they do that to develop the talent, or because they have no one better to play (perhaps like Antonio Blakeney at LSU). I have always said that my Bragg/Diallo complaints are relative to the competition. I never complain that Ellis should sit in their favor. That's because Ellis really is good.
Look at Players #26 - #30: Heck, if you venture even further down the top 25 -- you'll see #26 player Deyonte Davis at Michigan St. plain 17 minutes per game, #27 Thomas Bryant at Indiana playing 21.5 minutes per game, #28 Tyler Davis (boy I wish we had him) playing 21.2 minutes per game at Texas A&M (with a 30.8 PER, by the way), #29 Elijah Thomas (low minutes and transferred from Texas A&M), an #30 Prince Ali at UCLA playing 13.1 minutes per game. Four of the five higher than Bragg/Diallo. So when adding in the next five, Bragg/Diallo are #24 and #25 out of 30, when two are out for the season and one is transferring. This has to be a Bill Self thing, doesn't it?
Impact on Recruiting: Look, I like the idea that Self isn't pressured by recruits from a core perspective. But @ParisHawk brought up yesterday that part of Self goal should be recruiting -- like it or not, if I can sit here and spit out this stuff, I'm quite sure that some assistant coach at Alabama or Duke is doing the same thing to discuss with Marquis Bolden, who has the prospect of playing behind Landen Lucas and Dwight Coleby next season. We can applaud coach Self, but we just need to understand the repercussions.
Player Efficiency Rating: The PER takes into account positives such as field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals, and negative impacts such as missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls. The PER adds in positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system. The rating for each player adjusted on a per-minute basis so that, for example, substitutes can be compared fairly with starters. Another element is that it adjusts for a team's pace, which is important. However, it has weaknesses of course. Here's a LINK that might help ↗. Here's another LINK on the formula ↗ While PER takes into account blocks and steals, it doesn't take into account fully a player's defensive contribution, because blocks and steals aren't the only element of that. Just use it for what it is -- a very good guide to show the overall impact of a player. But I look at it this way -- if a guy is a true defensive stopper, then that guy won't be rewarded for PER. And a guy who is really good defensively should get some slack when using PER. You know those guys.
National Championship: With this discussion, I wouldn't want another coach at the helm for Kansas this season. While I want these freshmen to get minutes, I have a suspicion come February we'll all be fine with what's going on. This has the makings of a great team. A national champion. Start winning Saturday. Win 'em all. #1 seed, cake walk over a 16 seed, win three, and we're there at the dance.
This is a much better team than last season. As @drgnslayr said, Hunter and Landen have proven themselves so far this season and Hunter's additional and Lucas' apparent improvement make us better.
The second season starts tomorrow.
Lots of thread going at the moment. Thought I'd toss in a some interesting information I reviewed today with some other thoughts.
Of the 25 top rivals recruits, two are out due to injury (#17 Ray Smith/Arizona and #18 Tyler Dorsey/Oregon). So we are dealing with 23 players remaining.
We saw earlier in the year that from a minutes perspective, Diallo and Bragg were lagging far behind. As of today, the end of non-con, the gap is even bigger.
Beyond minutes, I looked at each of the top 25 (really 23 players) Player Efficiency Rating (PER). Not an absolutely perfect stat, but very reliable -- and it's the one "all in one" stat that we can look to for comparison.
Diallo/Bragg vs. Top 25 Recruits (Playing Time): Carlton Bragg is #20 (11.8 mpg) and Cheick Diallo is #21 (10.7 mpg) in playing time per game when compared to the Top 25 recruits. Only Chase Jeter/Duke (9.5) and Justin Simon/Arizona (7.1) are lower as well as the two injured players.
The Staggering Gap Between Bragg and #19 In Playing Time: More interesting is the ranking in playing time is that while Bragg is #20 at 11.8, the #19 playing in playing time is Skal Labissiere at 20.6 minutes per game. This is pretty staggering. So the next playing above Bragg is playing nearly double his minutes. Further, numbers 1 - 14 all play 25 minutes or more.
PER Rating: When looking at the overall PER ratings for these 23 players, Diallo is 7th best and Bragg is 10th best. So while their playing time lags severely, both players' production is well into the top half, and Diallo in the top third.
Minutes per game vs. PER Difference: To highlight the discrepancy, I compared minutes vs. PER. Only four players had a positive PER difference vs. minutes. Cheick Diallo has the best ratio at 11.2 (10.7 minutes/21.7 PER). Justin Simon of Arizona is next at 10.4 (7.1 minutes/17.5 PER). Diamond Stone is next (21.2/28.9). Then Carton Bragg at 7.7 (11.8/19.3). A positive ratio would indicate (roughly) that their minutes aren't in line with their production. Nineteen (19) players had a negative PER to minutes ratio, meaning they were playing more minutes than their PER -- nearly every player. Just a way to compare and contrast with what's happening in other programs.
Low PERs and Playing Time: It really stood out to me that many players had very low PERs, but got big minutes - Malik Newman (Miss. St) 28.0/14.0; Derryck Thornton (Duke) 17.3/13.6; Antonio Blakeney (LSU) 30.0/11.2; Caleb Swanigan (Purdue) 27.7/15.1; Jalen Adams (UConn) 20.9/11.5; Isaiah Briscoe (Kentucky) 30.4/15.0.
Landen Lucas/Jamari Traylor/Hunter Mickelson: Landen Lucas has reversed his PER from last season. In 2014-15, his PER was 13.7. Pretty bad. This season, though, Lucas is at an impressive 21.9. Hunter Mickelson had a PER of 22.5 in 2014-15 in limited playing time. However, he has backed that up during rotation level minutes, logging in at 24.2 this season. Jamari Traylor, though, has not improved by any significance. In 2014-15, his PER was 12.7. This season Traylor is at 14.7.
Svi Mykhailuk: When we discuss cutting the rotation, no doubt that Svi is on the chopping block. Svi's PER is 14.0, now just a tick below Traylor. Further, his PER trajectory has continued downward.
Cutting the Rotation: Self has spoken many times about trimming playing time. Self has always preferred and 8+ rotation. That is, 8 core players with a 5th perimeter guy and a 5th post player as extras (though the 5th post guy gets less minutes than the 5th perimeter player due to the minutes available -- 120 on the perimeter per game, and 80 in the post). It does not appear Self will get to that 8+ anytime soon. January becomes the sifter. LeGerald Vick is out. So we're down to 11. The next easy cut, again off production, is Jamari Traylor. He lags all of the bigs. Lucas, by his production, deserves to stay. I have my personal feelings on playing Lucas and Traylor. I wouldn't play either of them. But Lucas has been productive. No denying that. Traylor has not been productive. There is no denying that, either. Next, based on non-con, Self should really prioritize Brannen Greene over Svi. Greene checks in at a team high 27.6 PER. So even if we think Greene's might be a touch too high vs the eye test, he's still way ahead of Svi.
The Rotation Starting Saturday: Perimeter - Mason, Graham, Selden, Greene, with Svi as the 5th, lower minutes guy. In the post, if he does cut that rotation, Traylor should be out. Ellis and Mick start, and I would suspect Lucas and Bragg would be the primary back ups. Diallo, given his place in the pecking order and the upside we discuss, should get minutes as the 5th. If Diallo take silly shots like he did when he got in the game the other night -- the "selfish" 18 footer, as @BeddieKU23 correctly mentioned in another thread, that might stay his spot. Self should have yanked him right then and there, but then re-inserted him after the shock-collar treatment wore off. That's not a quick hook -- like when a player makes a common error. It would have been appropriate training.
Self And A National Championship: In Self's press conference today, he said very clearly that he would "Rather play great in the 3rd season than the 2nd season" -- Self refers to the NCAA tournament as the 3rd season and conference play as the 2nd season. That rather tepid statement is at least nice to hear.
2015-16 Kansas Offense: Is this the perfect offense? There is not one complaint I can muster regarding our offense, our scheming -- anything. Self has clearly focused this team on its strengths and has implemented his high/low to perfection with the talent he has this season. And as usual, the unsung part of Self's game planning has been top notch -- scoring on in-bounds plays. He's also added pressure at appropriate times, though most of us would like more. The best move, of course, was starting Graham and moving Selden to the three. That's what Self really learned in the WUGs, I would suspect. This is a national championship level offense. And when we're averaging 19+ three pointers per game, we're in the "Goldilocks Zone" for success. This is the offense we hoped for last season. Conference play will test Self's resolve and commitment to playing to this team's strength.
UConn Model?: I looked back at past national champions. In recent history, really only UConn has relied on lower tier bigs. Of course UConn had great guards, and smaller guards. This seems like a good comparison. Of course, most national champs have higher rated bigs in the rotation. I could not find a 6 man big rotation that won it all, but it won't be 6 come March. But our perimeter is our strength and this is the best group in the country.
Diamond Stone: We had a discussion on @DoubleDD's thread about Diamond Stone. A kid that struggled a bit early, looked a bit lost, and put up 39 points last night. I saw him play against Georgetown and he didn't look good at all. But Turgeon has played him. @DCHawker said in response to @BeddieKU23 - "Actually, Stone was getting less than 20 minutes a game through the first half of the season (although double digit minutes in every game) and, having watched a few of the games, he clearly looked a bit lost - just like a freshman. Only scored in double figures a couple of those games and was often out of position for rebounds (low totals). But, this is the key and I think make yours and @HighEliteMajor points - he was getting real minutes, Turgeon let him play through his mistakes, and he now looks a lot more comfortable - even dominant. Double figures in each of his last 6 games, capped by the 39pt, 12rb performance yesterday. Guys aren’t going to learn and gain experience riding the bench." Stone, during his minutes, seemed a lot like Diallo. He was productive, good PER, but made mistakes that caused a little head scratching. His production last night pumped his PER up quite a bit. But the key is he got time to work out the kinks. Other guys are getting that leeway. And getting it at Duke and Kentucky, not just at LSU or Mississippi State.
Tom Keegan: Wanted to reiterate my response on Keegan. Tom made the following statement - "Playing time doesn’t determine when the light comes on. The light coming on determines playing time. Here’s guessing it will come on for Bragg before this season is over. Diallo? That might take a little longer." First, Mr. Keegan has obviously never coached at any level. To discount the value of playing time is to simply speak from a position of ignorance. The man just doesn't know. And he obviously didn't speak to coach Self on the subject, and hasn't paid attention to Kansas players of the past. Playing time equals experience, and the more experienced you are, the brighter your light can become. Tom Keegan talking out of a body part in far reaches of his backside. And to suggest that the light has not come on for Bragg is just absurd. Diallo? Sure, we can all see that argument. But Bragg? What games has Keegan been watching? But again, how does the light come on? During limited practice time? Uh, no. Play them. And play them some more.
Have a great New Year's holiday! Baylor and OU, two games in three days -- now it begins.
Chemistry is always a great discussion.
Help me here though .. why is it most talented vs. most chemistry?
The two are not mutually exclusive. It just seems like we are all now we're searching for answers as to why Self isn't playing the freshmen. It's hard to reconcile unless you really like Jamari Traylor, or you really think Bill Self doing things differently than other coaches do in handling top talent makes sense.
Don't get me wrong. I'm a big believer in chemistry. I just think that more playing time helps develop chemistry. Chemistry doesn't just happen. Development includes the player, and teammates, working together.
When you cite the teams above that have knocked us off, I'm curious, why did we lose each one of those games? Add in Stanford. I don't think it's anything miraculous with any of the teams you named, or Stanford. We play our game. We play roughly to our talent level, and we win.
Could it have anything to do with our personnel decisions, game planning and failing to make adjustments on our end?
And back to chemistry .. what has Bragg done on the court that even hints at there being a chemistry gap?
"The game is so simple. But most coaches struggle with flexible thinking. It’s one of the paradoxes of the game. It’s simple flexibility of attack triggers complexity, and rigid thinkers that simplify through reduction are attracted and often succeed. But it’s being simply, fundamentally flexible that really pays the biggest dividends. All the greatest coaches distill to essence AND get flexible."
Here, here to that.
@ParisHawk On the first set of quotes .. I was kidding around. You missed my attempt at sarcasm. Yes, I have said both items. Your antenna ain't up that high today, apparently!
@curmudgeonjhwk Interesting … what member of the media would ask, and what are the chances we can bank on the reliability of the response? They better say, "I just want to work hard and earn my minutes. The main thing here is team success. I just want to do my part, whatever the coach says" …. or something like that.
@jayhawk-007 Great post .. I'll focus on the item I take a little issue with. Curious, what evidence to you have that the upperclassmen, I'll focus on Lucas and Traylor, make us better as a team than Bragg and Diallo (I can't argue about Mick)? We've had a number of examples .. recall the amount we stretched our lead in a game with Bragg and Diallo both on the floor vs. Harvard. We were up 13-10, and then less than four minutes later we're up by 14, 30-16? And how did that game move after that point in time, with Lucas in the game? How about when Bragg played significantly vs. Oregon State and other games? How has he held us back?
I just think that this is a convenient myth -- that we play better as a team without the freshmen. Bragg, in particular, has had very good stretches this season. Does anyone not see the talent there just waiting to burst through?
We can be supportive of coach Self, of course, but then we also need to venture outside of our KU world and see how other players are handled. If an objective review is desired.
I would add, as if I haven't before:
THE NC IS ALL THAT MATTERS. It's why you play the game. It rights every wrong.
I'm curious, why is it that those NC banners are all hung in prominence in AFH, and the end of the arena -- big, big banners? And why is that conference titles are piled all on to one or two banners? Why do students flood Mass. for NCs and not conference titles? When was the last conference title parade?
And no one cares that we didn't win the conference in 1988, correct? Did we win the conference in 1952? And in 2011, do we reflect and say, that's ok, we won the conference?
If you could have one and only one thing this season, what would it be? Right, I thought so.
That's my NC rant for the day. @jayhawk-007, thanks for being the inspiration.
@pa_grape Good to have you join the crew.
Interestingly, I am incredibly content with our offense this season. I have always been a big fan of the high low, just never a big fan of the emphasis and over-emphasis at times (even with skilled back to the basket scorers) on the post feed. This season seems nearly flawless from my perspective.
Self has added in a couple double screen, "go through the door", plays that we've seen.
For the young guys, it would be nice to run a few plays directly for them to get them in the flow. That's something I haven't seen Self do recently. Perhaps a back screen for Diallo, or for a pick and pop for Bragg. Get them in the flow.
You ask, what to do to develop them? Personally, I think the only way either of these guys makes the climb to toward their respective ceilings is to get quality game experience. You have identified it correctly .. nearly all of the comparable recruits are getting big minutes elsewhere from the 2015 class.
There is a partial reason for that. Those coaches see the value of playing time. It's really an indisputable element of development.
It is interesting, the timing of Keegan's column. It's an excellent discussion. Tom just has a wildly incorrect premise -- that the "light coming on" is not impacted by the minutes (or game experience) a player gets. I'm quite sure Self didn't tell him that. But I think Keegan is correct in that Self is so secure in his position he basically can do whatever he wants. That's true of 5-7 coaches in the country, so I'm not sure why that's news. I think the news is exactly what @wrwlumpy said -- Keegan is arguing that Self's approach is correct. And he wants everyone to know he agrees with coach Self. That's all good. He likes to agree with Self. I like to agree with Self -- but writing about "agreements" isn't that interesting sometimes. And this is all very fluid, though. Game to game. Post-game press conference to post-game press conference.
@jaybate-1.0 Thank you for the kind comments. If you've lost something off your fastball, it might be comparable to Nolan Ryan moving into his 40s -- still a knee buckling curve, and few no-hitters left in the arm. I ALWAYS enjoy the privilege of our discussions.
@JhawkAlum -- yea, it was when someone had the temerity to post a response after the "Next!" at the end that we were all in trouble. Sometimes I let out and audible, "uh-oh -- you shouldn't have done that."
@justanotherfan And good God, did you just post the post to end all posts? No truer words have been spoken.
@DoubleDD Nice post .. "actually playing to his team strength." I am working really hard to open my mind to the idea that playing 6 bigs in the rotation, playing guys (Lucas/Traylor) who have significant negative history over time, and limiting the PT of NBA level talent who need experience to develop, is actually a good thing. Really …. trying …. hard. Still, this alleged "strength", I fear, is really a weakness.
Did anyone see Diamond Stone drop 39 points last night? A guy who had been criticized for his "motor." I watched him play vs. Georgetown earlier this season, and he didn't look that great. Turgeon left him in. He let two guys score over/around him. The commentator said he was out of position on a play. and he missed a couple easy shots. But Turg let him get some time (and no, for the reactionary crew, I don't want Turg as our coach).
@ParisHawk Where have you heard that the NCAAs are Macro? Who would say such a thing? And "been there done that"? What idiot would say that? I can't think of one.
Anyway, I like this perspective you have brought here. It's a line of thinking that rarely is discussed. The possibility that the NC really isn't Self's singular, ultimate goal.
If the National Championship is not Bill Self's ultimate goal, seriously, I don't want him as our coach. But I don't believe that for one minute. I just think he differs on the best path to that ultimate goal.
And, look, it's a very reasonable argument, one I (and others) have mentioned before. Win games now, win the conference, get the number 1 seed and an easier path to the Final Four. Viewing this as a journey with steps along the way. We just don't have a very good history in that path under Self. One final four as a #1 seed. There's just evidence that high talent wins, as well. And there's evidence that low talent doesn't win. I think our higher talented players can get us all we want this season - wins, conference title, #1 seed, and most importantly, the best chance to win the national title. It is a wonderful debate.
And you bring up a good point -- if getting high-level recruits in following years is the "macro" (which I agree with, but that it would simply follow with my view on macro) -- isn't Self causing his recruiting efforts (your macro) significant harm by his handling of Bragg and Diallo (following Cliff)?
I would argue that your macro and my macro coalesce quite nicely.
@BeddieKU23 Can't you at least whittle down the playing time for some based on what you know now? What you've seen so far?
@REHawk - And Mickelson. No doubt. The internal upgrade to our rotation. On Bragg, do you fear Bragg errors? I think the guy is on the verge of a 15-18 point game if he can just get some big minutes under his belt. I see the point on Diallo errors, but not Bragg. So you suffer from myopia, huh? It is a curable condition. Thankfully.
@jaybate-1.0 Another reason -- again, assuming that a NC is the focus (@ParisHawk got me thinking there though) -- no team has won a national title in recent memory with such a deep post rotation. Really, it's unheard of.
@jaybate-1.0 I think you are exactly right. A lot of bluster right now. Motivation perhaps -- I think. A bold statement about going with experience aimed directly at the ears of the freshmen. High ceilings. Good to have upside. He knows that.
I was also interested in your statement (and you know I would be) about the transition last season away from our 21-4 self, to our bad balling self. This time, I do agree with you (as you might suspect). I'm a big tent guy, always room at the inn for wayward souls. I kid because .. well .. I like to kid.
Seriously, though, Self has demonstrated that he's committed to his shooters. Just when you think he might call "no mas", we keep shooting. Do you (or anyone) have any gripes with the offense at this point? I don't. It's exactly what I would have hoped.
19 three pointers is the spot, give or take a few. I think we're in the perfect spot right now.
Tom's comment comes from someone who hasn't coached at all.
Players reach their peak, and players learn, from being in game action. Not solely, of course, but in great measure. Actually, saying that playing time doesn't determine when the light comes on is simply absurd.
Keegan is saying that playing time has nothing to do with development (another way to say the light coming one). Absolutely absurd.
Now, saying that the light coming on determines playing time with coach Self -- that is unfortunately true.
And, of course, the determination as to whether the light has come on is a subjective tolerance, of which coach Self has always had a low tolerance.
@drgnslayr -- Really, who has said, ever, giving them "free minutes?" Presumably they work hard in practice and do the prerequisites to get on the floor, because they actually do get on the floor. No one has said that. It's a straw man.
You play kids for a purpose. If Lucas gives us the best chance at a national championship, and that is the determination, then that's a different story. But Self has never said that. He simply talks about winning now.
It's quite simple. As simple as it has always been. You give minutes with the purpose of being the best team possible in March, to win a national championship.
@JRyman Right, they all had questionable moments. No doubt.
I would say that without Bragg and Diallo, we look seem to look like last year's team in the post, but we don't. We've got one big change and that's Mickelson is starting and playing significant minutes. It just appears to me that without Bragg and Diallo, or at least one of them functioning at a high level and playing significant minutes, our chances of a national championship seem much lower than with their high functioning/involvement.
@JRyman Of course, there was the time when Bragg did close out nicely as well. And as @justanotherfan said, I doubt contesting that three would have been a priority at that point in the game. I would have wanted him to shoot the three -- until he made a few. Then there was the time that Lucas got sealed away from the hoop, out of position, and gave up a hoop, too. The reality is that each of these guys make errors.
I guess I'm most puzzled by Self's position on Bragg in comparison. Bragg has demonstrated himself in real game situations, and against good teams.
Self's quotes from last night should be very concerning for any Kansas fan interested in a National Championship.
Would Self say that he thinks these three (Lucas, Traylor, Mick) as the 2, 3, and 4 big men are the best way for us to win a National Championship?
"Self will relish turning this into a defensive struggle!"
I'd relish a tidy 83-64 win. You know, the kind where Self says we only look good because we're making shots.
@Hawk8086 Thanks .. the Oubre thing is really just some speculation. There was the statement that he turned out fine, but I think the results might suggest otherwise. Mid-first rounder, an important scorer, and he gets 3 points vs. ISU and then 9 vs. WSU in our most important game of the year.
Another thought -- Let's take three games: Oregon St., Harvard, and SDSU. Let's assume Self plays Diallo and Bragg 20 minutes in each of those games.
What is the absolute worst that happens? Lose two of them?
And if Self said after the losses that we definitely want to win the non-con games, but there are bigger fish to fry, would anyone have any quibble with that?
I don't know. I know I don't want to lose two of those three. Realistically, maybe we lose one. Maybe. But I personally think we still win all three.
I think we win vs. Harvard by more than 6 or whatever. I really believe we win at SDSU. And vs. Oregon St., our first half was bad anyway and it would be Diallo instead of Mick for much of the second half. Tough to tell. Hard to see losing any of them.
But tonight is a new box of chocolates.
Maybe Self really has a "master plan" beyond just win the current game. I don't see it though.
"If he has to really TAKE IT TO the defender, he needs to pay close attention to the defender and score at the right opportunity. Like… have a shot fake, get the defender up the air, then go into the defender to draw contact to at least get FTs out of the deal. Or look at the defender’s feet to see where Perry can easily gain scoring space, even when directly taking it to the defender."
@drgnslayr - Sounds like you need to get in Perry's ear.
@Lulufulu I really think it's Selden. He is very vocal, and when you add kick-a** game performances, it adds to your leadership. Hard to be a leader who doesn't produce. And hard be a leader and rarely talk or show emotion (Ellis).
@VailHawk Exactly ... couldn't have said it better. I would add that even if the pair were statistically inferior, I'd still advocate for much more time in games where we could win without playing "experience" -- like much of our non-con. Heck, I'd start Diallo tomorrow night and let him play 20 minutes or until he fouls out. I'd let Bragg play 20 as well. Just commit to it, and do it. Why not? What's the risk?
@BeddieKU23 You said, "if the goal is to win the National Championship and the SDSU game was a pawn on the chess board, then Diallo and Bragg should have at least been given the opportunity to play in the pressure moments." -- Great analogy. Each game is a pawn. You may win the battle (SDSU), but does that help you win the war (NC)? I really thought some might latch on more to the Bill Self loves Jamari line of thought -- the love for one's players is a powerful thing. And I very much think that Self has a great attachment to Traylor, and his path to Kansas. The kid is an amazing story. How could you not love the kid?
@jaybate-1.0 Awesome post.
@drgnslayr - Rarely do we disagree in a post this much -- but you make an excellent argument.
Your response to @BeddieKU23 is the exemption to the rule. Do you really think that Traylor gives a better chance to win now, than say Bragg? And you mentioned the Big 12 race. I know some people really care about this. If we were say, the Royals, I agree -- the division championship was a big deal. But we have 11 in row. Doesn't that pale in comparison to the impact on Self's legacy vs. another NC? If you said, "Bill Self 11 conference titles and two nationals championships", does anyone care with the "11" is a "12", a "10", or something near that?
You said,"Self is not going to throw away the B12 race just to hope it pays off in March because our freshmen may be a tad bit further along." I would disagree with the "tad" thing and the premise that we'd throw away the race -- and I sure hope you're wrong. When you have a bunch of league titles, the one thing that takes you to the next level is the NCs. I guess I'm disagreeing and agreeing with another one of your points -- you said "experience, quality players." You then exempted "Jamari or Landen as quality bigs", just calling them experienced. You're right, they are really just experience. Not quality. I guess I do disagree with the premise of the "experience" thing. You mentioned "team ball" as if Diallo and/or Bragg wouldn't bring that. Bragg has been amazing so far.
Do you really think that extended "experience", in-game, is not the best path to Diallo and Bragg reaching peak efficiency by March?
Your thoughts here really provide a different perspective on what might be this team's strength. But how about "pace"?
Remember, though, the veterans can possess this team, and will possess it -- Diallo is not Wiggins. There are no SI covers. This is a team led by Ellis, Mason, and Selden. I agree with @BeddieKU23 -- they are our core. Diallo and Bragg will always be supplements this season. I think their style of play (high pace) accentuates and makes it more of a weapon.
And regarding your first post above, I would also argue that Oubre's handling did not pay off -- at all. In four of our five postseason games, he scored less than double figures. He was a non-factor vs. ISU in KC, and vs. WSU when we sure could have used a 20 point game. What do you think about that?
I would toss in that I did think Bragg should and would be an immediate contributor. He is our most skilled big right now (more so than Ellis). Ellis, however, is an elite level talent with experience. Ellis is thus better right now. No doubt. But the more experience Bragg gets, that gap will close quickly -- it's that experience he needs to push to the next level. Bragg will feed on the experience like a bacteria consuming flesh, and we'll have a monster. Another guy who can be a go-to guy.
Your responses are terrific discussion -- always gets me thinking.
@dylans When I hear "Selby size hole", that is very concerning. And it worries me, meaning my recollection of Selby and his fight to get on the court; and Self's preference for Reed and Brady. I was more in EJ's camp. But I guess i feel better in that Diallo's role is perhaps easier to assimilate to on this team. Our terrific perimeter makes that the focus.
@wrwlumpy You said that Diallo will play when he helps more than he hurts -- hard for me to let that slip by. I would just want that standard to apply to all players. And if it did, you know, some wouldn't play. Some of the players some of us love. That's the net production I talk about. It is odd that in a post that presumably defends Traylor, you would move to such a discussion point because that is and always has been his weakness -- the lack of net production.
I do like your backhanded comment to affect your point -- "opposite of that" and "Jamari lover" stuff. It just gets you off the hook for saying "Jamari hater." It's softer. It does make some feel better to believe that the large contingent of folks that disagrees with Traylor's PT "hate" him. Whatever. But as I've said, it's all relative to the talent and the level of competition. If we had Justin Wesley, Christian Moody, and Landen Lucas as our other bigs paired with Ellis and Traylor, it's a different discussion. It's that I dislike his game in comparison to our other alternatives.
And you fall in the trap that others do as well, referring to Diallo being out of position. I cited many times when Traylor was out of position last season, and when he completely messed up -- the same stuff folks tried to use to disparage Cliff. That goes to the net -- for example, if Diallo is out of position and allows for an easy layup. But then blocks or changes a shot that would otherwise go in, then gets a rebound and put back; in instances where the player would score over JT and where JT would not get the rebound, who's better?
That's "play the better player" stuff.
Maybe your high school story makes you sentimental -- but I think you could analogize JT as the football players. Diallo and Bragg are better than Traylor right now. Just like you were better than your bigger and stronger competition -- you were just better. More skilled. A basketball player. JT is certainly a basketball player. Just less skilled, that's all.
You didn't mention Bragg -- do you have the same opinion of Bragg vs. JT as Diallo vs. JT?
How about this? When I refer to "Jamari Lovers", assume that it is done with the utmost affection. Nothin' wrong with lovin'.
Brilliant work .. great read.
My take - The "goldilocks zone" for three pointers is 19-20, give or take a few per game. I use MSU as our guide from last season, as well as our current rate of threes for this season. 16 in a game we win and are productive offensively is perfectly acceptable. It just needs to be part of our accepted diet, at every meal (game). 19-20, plus or minus a few.
But if we start going through stretches where we are averaging near 16 and not playing well offensively, that's a different story. As much as I love threes, I love good offense better. And running the break, playing fast, and pressuring defenses with high/low passing and targeted penetration that exploits weaknesses -- all good stuff -- are perfect for this team's make-up.
@wrwlumpy You said, "Although I appreciate these discussions, I support Self’s philosophy of 'Prove to me in practice that you know what you are doing and when you do that, I’ll trust you with more minutes'.”
Although you mention practice, has Self really mentioned that? In particular, vs. SDSU, Self just said he went with "experience." Thus the formation of this discussion. You may also simply trust Self on going with experience. If you assume for the moment -- just for this item -- that we would have won at SDSU going with the freshmen instead of experience, what is your opinion there?
@Bwag - Thanks .. on your points, I'll focus on the SDSU run. Personally, I just think it was natural and something that happens in most competitive CBB games. Times when we're a bit out of sorts, crowd gets in it, and we put on a little run. I have not rewatched that second half (I need to), but your point about flipping out of the double teams might be right on point. I'm very comfortable in my opinion that only if there was something crazy (injury, Ellis and Mason fouling out, etc), we don't lose that game. We were just a much better team than SDSU. And your point on playing time and what it brings for the future is exactly my concern -- "If Self balked against SDSU, what’s he going to do on the road against Big12 competition." Exactly.
I wold add that I don't think SDSU's defense was up to Fisher's normal standards -- but then again, our perimeter players are amazing and can make decent defenders look bad. Our perimeter group is our best in recent memory, in my opinion, playing the style that suits them.
@Hawk8086 Sorry i wasn't clear .. my question was related to your mention of the "variable", meaning while it is certainly defensible go with experience, do you think it was the right thing to do in the context of the season?
This is one of those topics that is truly situational, player to player.
One big distinction in this discussion are the two players -- Diallo and Bragg. This is what @benshawks08 is alluding to in part in citing Oubre and Cliff.
One is more advanced skill wise (Bragg).
I would argue that Oubre was not functioning at his peak in March, though. In fact, he was bad for two very important games -- ISU in the conference tourney final, and vs. WSU. The WSU game might be one where you'd expect a guy like Oubre, NBA fringe lottery, to really step it up. In Oubre's 5 post season games, he scored double figures only once (vs. TCU in the first round on the Big 12 tourney).
Now, I think there is an argument to suggest that maybe Oubre was mishandled. But I would also suggest that there is a argument to say that his handling was calculated and perhaps perfect. He was brought along slowly in Nov. and then bumped into a starting role. But I am just looking at March and the results. That's the only thing that really matters. When March rolled around, Oubre was a no show. That may have nothing to do with his handling, though.
On the other hand, I think that Cliff's handling was largely botched. @DinarHawk -- you mentioned Cliff. What are your thoughts?
The stats are simply undeniable as far as his production. Cliff was our best player on a per minute basis. Cliff's PER for the season was a team high 23.2. I think we all know why Cliff struggled -- coach Self's standards and requirements that permit Self to feel comfortable playing. Other coaches do things differently. But Cliff was a different sort of dude. I have a hard time caring, since he was held out when it counted anyway, except as it relates to the current handling of players.
It's interesting when another coach that does it the other way, John Calipari, is now forced into a bit of a retreat. Skal had started every game, and was averaging 21.6 minutes per game. But he did not improve with those minutes in any obvious way. In fact, though I've only watched 2 1/2 UK games this season, it would appear he is in over his head at the moment. Would Skal have benefited from playing here, and being brought along slower?
@ParisHawk Are you suggesting that the NC is not the goal at AFH? But you're right, I have not heard Self say that. I'm assuming … @jaybate-1.0 You are concerned that the NC is not the goal?
@Lulufulu I hope he's not purposefully holding them back -- we have a potential NC this season. Who knows what next season will bring. On Cole, it is all relative. He had excellent players in front of him. Cole being the #4 big made sense that season. And the recruiting impact you mentioned, as much as we dislike that dynamic, can't be overlooked.
@Hawk8086 Would you have taken a chance and changed that one variable?
@JhawkAlum Thank you very much for your post. Folks that post such negativity are really just a minor distraction. I do appreciate your comments.
After the SDSU game, @VailHawk posted perhaps the perfect thread. A simple picture of Cheick Diallo and Carlton Bragg on the bench. The title of the thread was appropriately, "What's Wrong With This Picture?"
Very few times do we have "thread perfection." But if there ever was a time, this was it.
The thread challenged us to think. We won. Traylor played well. Yet Diallo sat. And Bragg sat. Kansas basketball paid a price for Self's decision. Another opportunity at experience lost.
Thus in a "micro" sense, Traylor played well and we won. But in a "macro" sense, we lost. And we are losing. The cause? Myopia -- a severe case of short-sightedness that has afflicted our coach's thought process. But another cause? Feelings. The coach's love for his players and the struggle every coach goes through with players he loves -- it's hard to watch them sit on the bench.
Based on our coach's statements (apparently) finally accepting the strengths of our team (shooting), that the rate of threes should increase, and that he forced last year's team to be something it wasn't, this is … maybe … the last hurdle. So here we go:
The Struggle - Win This Game vs. Gaining Experience: It's every coach's job, right? Win. It's the ultimate trump card. But we all know there is a bigger picture, don't we? Bill Self knows it. Perry Ellis knows it when he said in October, "I have a goal to go to the Final Four." So what is the best way to get there? That's a difficult question, too. Is it play to win each game regardless of the carnage, "the ends justify the means", in a game to game sense? To just try to get a #1 seed since that's the easier path? Or do you do long-term planning? Do your projections go into your playing time decisions? Do you attempt to get your best players the experience needed to be at their collective ceilings in March? Do you permit as much time as possible for those players to play together, with the team, so the team is function as high as it possibly can? That's the struggle. After the SDSU game, Bill Self explained why he played Jamari Traylor 21 minutes. "When the game got tight, I went with experience (Traylor). I put an experienced guy out there because he’d been there before.” Self has also said in comparing Diallo and Bragg to the vets, “There’s other kids who have busted their butt for two or three years who are trying hard, too."
The Struggle - Feelings vs. Playing The Best Players: Anyone that has coached knows what I'm talking about. The kid you love. The kid you have worked with for years, but he's a lower tier player. If you are truly trying to be the best team you can be, that kid would sit quite a bit. As a coach, and I've been there, you adjust your strategy to make sure that kid plays. At that point, you accept that you might be compromising your team's ceiling for a reason based on feelings -- you are making decisions with your heart, not your head. @Jesse-Newell made the comment a number weeks ago, explaining Self's playing time for Traylor, that Self just really likes the kid and his background. I get it. But are Bill Self's feelings for a player or players the right way to make decisions? Do you make the hard choice and sit a kid or kids that you love? That's the struggle. In referencing the playing time in the post, Self said after the SDSU: “It’s not easy to play six big guys, and we played one of them 17 minutes in the first half (Ellis). Have to give everybody a chance."
Myopia Defined: I found this on-line, perhaps the best definition for my purposes here - "Myopia is an adjective meaning shortsighted in every sense. Whether you need glasses or a new attitude, if you can't see the forest for the trees, you're myopic." Ah, that forest for the trees thing. I've referred to that before. The paralysis by analysis. Focusing too much on the "micro" elements, and losing sight of the big picture, or the macro. Playing Landen Lucas because he's more effective when the opposition is in a three-quarter deny position. Or when Lucas just has to play to guard a good player, on an average team, at AFH. It's all the same myopia.
Why Is It Myopia?: Easy. Bill Self said it. We've all said it. It's literally undisputed. Diallo and Bragg have the highest ceilings of the post players. When speaking of the post players, Self said, “Your most talented, gifted kids physically are your younger kids.” When they don't play, the concept of short-sightedness comes into focus. @bwag said on another thread: "Mari's playing time now, comes at a cost that, many of us fear, will be payed later at greater consequence than an early season game against inferior quality opponents … If experience is important, and no one disagrees that it is, then early season games should focus on getting your more talented, but less experienced players more experience in game situations." We have two players who are our only post players that really have NBA futures. Diallo was the #5 player, as projected OAD. And Bragg the #21 player, who is now racing up NBA draft projections. But what is interesting is that both players have also demonstrated productivity while on the floor this season.
Is Anyone Unexpendable?: After the SDSU game, I posted on @VailHawk's thread, the following, simple question: "Is there anyone that thinks we lose last night if Jamari Traylor missed the flight to SD and didn’t make the trip?" Of course, the normal anger ensued without any of the angry ones thinking past the end of their collective noses. @JayHawkFanToo, however, missed my point, but also made my point, He said, "You could leave just about any KU player home and still win (or lose) most games …" Right, that's the point. Therefore, why ever play the inferior, low ceiling players rotation level minutes? Certainly Jamari Traylor played well vs. SDSU. Maybe his second best game as a Jayhawk. But that misses the "macro" point. Those minutes are valuable experience.
Experience Contradiction: Why did Self go with Traylor? Self said "experience." Why would one go with "experience"? Presumably, because "experience" gives you a better chance to win. Ok, given that, wouldn't it make sense then to provide your higher talent players as much "experience" as possible so that when presented the opportunity in more important games, that they would give you the better chance to win? One point is of course the need to win the game at hand. But I would argue that most of our games are not going to be won or lost by the lower ceiling talent. That's rarely ever the case. Heck, we won the three prior game by 90 combined points with Traylor playing 13 minutes. Self played Mickelson nearly the entire second half against Oregon St. Does anyone really think we lose that game if Mickelson doesn't play? The reason I didn't have an issue with that is Mickelson's higher talent level. But if Self would have played Diallo those minutes, I would have had zero problem. None. It would have been done for a reason -- for the big picture. If experience is a reason to select a player for playing time, then you have to give the better players the opportunity to gain that valuable experience. If you don't, and you are planning that they have bigger minutes in the future, then you are compromising your ceiling in the future by limiting their minutes and experience now.
Pressure Makes Diamonds: General George Patton said, famously, "pressure makes diamonds." And this is very true in sports. The first time you step to the free throw line with opposing fans screaming, late in the game, is much different than the 25th time. Why? Because you know what to expect. You've been there before. You've experienced the butterflies in the stomach. And over time, the way nerves negatively affect performance progressively lessen. We had our team's first true road game. Hostile environment. Adversity. And what happened? Self fumbled the opportunity to give Diallo and Bragg the pressure situation, the situation that can help shape them moving forward in much more important games -- whether they be conference games or tourney games. Experience -- and being subjected to pressure over time -- permits an athlete to perform at their peak without interference from nerves and other extraneous forces.
Not Playing Diallo/Bragg High Minutes Makes Sense Only If …: Right, only if Self does not intend to play them high level minutes in March. There, it would make sense. If Self projects Bragg at 10 minutes and Diallo as an 8 minute guy later, then sure, get the minutes for the guys you are ultimately going to rely upon. But if Self envisions Bragg and Diallo as big minutes guys, players that we need to get us to a national title, then it makes zero sense.
The Risk Of The Alleged Hot-Hand: It's just an increased gamble. Alright, tell me who will play better against UC-Irvine, Svi Mykhailuk or Frank Mason? Do you really know? Couldn't Svi come out and drill four three pointers in the first 5 minutes? Of course he could. So if Self has that "feeling", as I'm sure he might from time to time, why doesn't he gamble from time to time and start Svi over Mason? Because lineup decisions made on those gambles will surely blow up. There are decent odds against on Svi outperforming Mason. Coaches make lineup decisions based on the most likely results -- they play the best players. What player, over the long term, is my best bet? If a coach tries to project future results on other factors, the chances of it blowing up in his face increases. A way decisions blow up in one's face is also the failure to perform. The player in question playing poorly and providing a subpar performance. When a coach has evidence from past performances, it makes no sense to risk that underperformance unless there is a higher purpose. For Kansas, all Self has to do is look at the history of poor and mediocre performances from Lucas and Traylor to get a good read on the risks of playing either of them. With Bragg and Diallo, we have the promise of higher ceilings. As I'll address below, it's all relative.
The SDSU Example: Self goes with Traylor because of experience. But let's assume for a moment that Traylor performs, well, like Traylor normally does. Let's say there's no steals, two turnovers, and two less rebounds. My point is not the exact detail of how this would occur, but only to suggest that Traylor harming Kansas while on the floor is a much greater probability than Traylor helping Kansas. We know that from his history here. The stats just don't lie. Traylor had more steals than turnovers vs. SDSU. Last season, Traylor 20 games where he had more turnovers than steals, and only 4 games where he had more steal than turnovers. See what I mean?
But Can't Self Just Pull Him?: Of course he can. Self could just pull him when his performance turns downward. But do you see the peril of that approach? First, you remove the player when he fails to perform -- the negative has already occurred. Second, you lose the potential positive from the better player -- meaning the odds are that the better player is going to give you a better "net" performance over time. So your gamble has more than just one element. The gamble is opportunity cost. You also lose the potential performance of the player on the bench. And this goes to the heart of some advanced statistics. Playing the best player maximizes your team's opportunities more times than not playing the best players does.
The Bigger Purpose (Macro) AND Micro Help: Here's the thing .. the current stats show that playing Diallo and Bragg will, over time, be better for Kansas. Just using what they've done now, and not even projecting improvement. Pair this with the unanimous agreement that Diallo and Bragg have higher ceilings, the case is undeniably compelling. The catch-all Player Efficiency Rating shows as follows - Diallo 21.6, Bragg 21.1, Lucas 21.0, and Traylor 15.5. So even using this rating, in Diallo and Bragg's first minutes as Jayhawks, they are either equal or better bets for positive performances on the court than Lucas or Traylor -- and that doesn't even consider that higher talent Self referred to. Further, when you factor in that both Diallo and Bragg's need to continue their development, and that development leads to better performances, only someone making decisions for non-performance reasons could come to a different conclusion. The fact is, as well, that developing the top talent doesn't necessarily mean you sacrifice victories.
For Kansas to reach it's potential, Bill Self needs to overcome his fear that inexperience may cost him a game. It might happen. He has to realize that relying on experience, equally, may also cost him a game as well. It's the same discussion as blaming losses on bunnies and missed three pointers. You can lose both ways. And developing talent doesn't necessarily mean sacrificing wins.
THE GOAL IS TO WIN THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. EVERY MOVE SHOULD BE MADE WITH THAT IN MIND. Diallo and Bragg being at maximum efficiency is much more important thaN a loss here or there, if that were to occur. Getting Diallo and Bragg experience now, and regularly, and under fire, is crucial to that pursuit. It is critical.** A great example is Diallo and fouling. Many comments that he needs to learn without fouling -- exactly. He needs on the job experience to learn. Just one example.
Some folks have downplayed Kansas' chances this season saying that we are essentially the same team from last season. They are right, only if Diallo and Bragg aren't big minutes players, night in, and night out. And they are right if Diallo and Bragg aren't ready to be the #2 and #3 post players come March.
We have seen what results our alternatives provide over multiple seasons, and this is all relative. For this team to reach its peak, as well as to win games now, the better gamble is give Diallo and Bragg consistent and unyielding doses of 18-20 minutes per game.
@JayHawkFanToo Again, you don't answer the questions posed. We know why.
And you don't follow along too well. Self is giving valuable, on the road, hostile environment playing time to a low ceiling, low talent player -- instead of injecting our higher talent players in crunch time minutes, in that situation -- in a situation you admit we would have won without Traylor. Traylor and Lucas, on the front end, are costing this team on the back end. Every minute they play in lieu of our higher talented players costs us. Why? Why leave Diallo and Bragg on the bench? Why pass up (again) an opportunity to provide these players the valuable experience the Self says was the deciding factor in playing Traylor? All as @Bwag said above.
Selden and Traylor? Now you're getting comical. I mean, more than normal. You actually compare an NBA level talent to Traylor? A top 15 player to a top nothing player? You're hopeless. And before you act with indignation like you regularly do, and go circular in the discussion -- when you use Traylor in one paragraph, and then go to the next paragraph citing Selden -- saying "players do change during the off season, some dramatically" -- that implies that you are comparing the two. So yes, you are suggesting that Traylor could improve dramatically. That's just anticipating your typical response.
So you sit here today saying Traylor could improve by leaps and bounds, huh?
As @Bwag stated, look at the PER. Traylor is still the worst of the rotation players, even after Tuesday's game. Selden, last season, was 11.9. Now he's at 25.0. Traylor last season? 12.7 -- ugh. Now, 15.5. Same cloth. Diallo and Bragg are both 33% or more better from a PER perspective than Traylor, if it matters to you (which I know it doesn't).
And remember, when Traylor improves a little from last season to this season, he's still a poor player.
Again, you throw out this disingenuous thing. I say what I think. I'm not hiding or shirking from anything. Yet you are too insecure to answer questions posed because you understand the implication of your responses.
And when you say lay back and let coach do his job, you mean the same coach that admitted that I was right and he was wrong last season? That's the coach I assume you mean.
We had lots of discussions where you angrily defended Self, that he knows best, the same baloney. Now, he admits:
Bill Self - “I do think we need to shoot a higher percentage of threes. I do think we need to play to our strength, which is shooting the basketball.”
Bill Self - “Last year, we kept trying to force it to become something we probably weren’t.”
I know these quotes are painful, and I would not expect you to act with humility, or be contrite. Others might be. Until then, please remind me to throw them in your face any time you want to suggest that we should blindly buy what Bill Self is selling because he is Bill Self --- which is all you do.
I challenged you last year to tell me something substantively that you disagreed with Self on. You remained silent. I assume that remains the same.
Here's another question you could answer -- name me one other offensive move that Traylor has other than driving to his right from the free throw line? I mean, that he has perfected in 4 plus seasons in a Kansas uniform. You have 30 seconds.
@truehawk93 Mamadou doesn't impact or speed at all, unless we impact our own speed by trying to adjust to him (or them).
What I mean is that the level of respect we give him can compromise our ability to play the way we want to play. We've seen it before where Self is content with playing the way other teams plays, games he seems to enjoy (the muddy games). We were sucked into playing one of those games before with an inferior opponent earlier in the season.
We can play at our pace, while still respecting the fact that he's an overwhelming matchup on the block for every player we have (and for much of the nation I would presume). I posted my thoughts on that on the Mamadou thread. Pretty simple stuff really that Self does all the time.
If you want to look for the "perfect" attack to handle an overwhelming post player, go back and look at what SDSU did to Embiid in AFH. Great game planning. And Self admitted after the game that we weren't ready for that -- one of the few times Self was clearly out coached. Mamadou may be ready for it, but the weapons around him are inferior. We will overwhelm them with our strengths.
@JhawkAlum You are exactly right. Certain folks here have comprehension problems. It would be top 4 in the rotation, from my perspective, with Lucas or Traylor as the 5th.
@JayHawkFanToo Do you not even try to connect the dots here and the reason for my post above with the question, before suggesting that my comment is disingenuous?
First, of course. We could have gone to SDSU without Mason and won. Or without Ellis, most likely. Or anyone. Of course. You have identified the self evident. And, as you saw, I answered your question. We are playing inferior non-conference opponents.
Second, with that, it highlights the silliness of playing Lucas 24 minutes earlier in the season at home -- again, as if we couldn't have won without him. Pure nonsense. The same with playing Traylor 21 minutes vs. SDSU (Macro, not micro -- Traylor played well vs. SDSU). Lucas' situation was both, but my point focuses on the macro.
Third, and follow with me here, if we can literally win most games if we are missing "any KU player" as you correctly suggest, then why in the world would we play arguably our two worst players --- ever? When we have our two highest ceiling players, according to Self, on the bench?
Again, your statement is the exact purpose of my question. Traylor is not indispensable. And as such, as the worst or second worst rotation player, why play him at all?
See, I answered your question because it doesn't really concern me where your line of thought takes us. You, and the others here who illogically defend the Traylor/Lucas decisions, refuse to answer when I have asked questions -- questions that move such "thinkers" into a corner. It's why you and the Traylor/Lucas defenders won't answer.
I asked this question earlier, before the season, and I'll ask it now -- based on performance, if we had to lose one current KU rotation player for the season, who would you choose?
That's my point. It's the macro discussion on playing time, and why playing either Traylor or Lucas big minutes right now makes zero sense when you have two guys on the bench that need the minutes to develop.
@jayballer54 I don't know what stats you're looking at. I think you read them incorrectly.
He averages 12.4 points per game, 7.4 rebounds per game, and has 40 blocks in 14 games (which translates to 5.0 every 40 minutes of play, or .126 per minute). His PER is 29.0 and he scores at 80% per shot at the rim. So he is a real load here.
However, stats that stuck out to me. 8 assists. 31 turnovers. Prime for some double teaming.
I saw him play for a half in a game earlier this season.
Here's what I'd do -
Double him in on the block. But I would mix it up Double him on the catch. Then double him on the first bounce. Then fake a double. Maybe gauge that based on his distance from the basket.
Be sure to slide a defender down through the middle for a bit of a zone look on the double to guard for cutters to the hoop -- see how they react to the doubles. However, if you have an off block defender, move him to the middle base on Mamadou's positioning on the catch -- for example, if he is shaded more up the lane. That gives the off block defender a good "ball you man" positioning to interrupt a pass post to post, but also be outside of the charge arc.
Deny a clean cut to the hoop from other offensive players when possible, meaning just getting in the way. That means playing off of them a bit.
This all of course means that if Mamadou is alert and able, he might be able to kick for an open three. I'd make him do that across the court, so tighter to the near side offensive player. But the guy has just 8 assists this season. Let's say he gets 2 or 3. Big deal.
They have two good shooters, just respect them a bit more perhaps, particularly if Mamadou makes that cross court pass and they convert a couple. But I'd make them do that.
@Hawk8086 - I know playing Lucas seems reasonable as Self has said he's the best post defender. But remember, what is our team strength? Pace of game. Lucas slows that down significantly. We cannot allow other teams, particularly those that are vastly inferior, to dictate our style of play. Self does that from time to time. Let's make the big boy tired. We'd rather create havoc and speed this whole thing up. Lucas will never do that. I'd start with Mick and double -- better hands, more apt for the steal or tip away. But I would also use Diallo significantly. Good challenge. But Mick and Diallo are the only two players that can contest his shot. Lucas for short stretches.
But do you really want to make Mamadou irrelevant on one end of the court? Play Ellis and Bragg together. This game (basketball) is about winning the possession battle -- scoring more per possession. Who will this big dude guard and how can he guard out on the floor? I'd be interested to see the +/- when those two are in with Mamadou. I hope Self plans to try this for a stretch to see.
That would be my game plan.
@RockkChalkk You certainly make excellent points. Traylor limits our offense all the time. Can't argue with you at all there. I would not have played Traylor over Bragg, period. The only point I was making was that in seeing the result, and the 3 steals vs. zero turnovers, and the offensive boards, Traylor had a good game from a "net" standpoint.
We have some folks here that just react angrily at any discussion of Traylor. I've found what gets them even angrier are numbers and stats, so I apologize in advance, since it is Christmas time.
Last season, Traylor had 20 games where he committed more turnovers than steals -- 20. He only had 4 games where he had more steals than turnovers. This is important for Traylor because he doesn't score, and his activity and supposed "energy" are why he's playing. The SDSU game was the first in his career at +3, steal/turnovers (not saying that is ever expected from a post player in one game; but it stood out and explains my favorable position on Traylor in the SDSU game). He also has a nice offensive rebounding game. All that is why this game vs. SDSU was such an outlier.
Now, Traylor didn't score vs. SDSU -- just 6 points. But that was largely irrelevant given the balance of his numbers.
So this was one of exceptions to the "negative net" rule for Traylor.
By the way, for the angry Traylor lovers, he is still our worst rotation player. His player efficiency rating is still the worst on the team, even after his "peak" performance Tuesday.
But the Diallo/Bragg question that Traylor gets lumped in with is not a micro one, it is a macro one. And I plan to address that in a few days.
@JayHawkFanToo Of course, you didn't answer my questions about Traylor.
Regarding Diallo and Bragg, yes, I think we win at SDSU without either of them. In fact, I think we could go 25-10 or 27-9 and lose in the first weekend of the NCAA tourney without them, as well.
With that backhanded question, I will acknowledge (as I have in the past) that Traylor (with CF) saved us from losing to Eastern Kentucky in the first round in 2013-14 with the best performance of his life. Without Traylor, I'll acknowledge we lose in the first round that year.
@DoubleDD You asked the following, with my responses.
What if the best player is having a bad night? Play him. Your best player will, over time, give you the best results. If you try to time the market, so to speak, you'll miss much of the time. We just don't know when a player will implode or explode. We have no idea what Bragg would have done last night, for example, in minutes 8-18 if he would have gotten 10 more minutes of PT. It just worked out in this game -- the micro. From a macro standpoint, you play the best player. That gives you the most reliable result.
Why not go to the bench? Maybe, for a breather. But speculating on whether an inferior player will perform better than the better player is just that, speculation.
Why not use the depth KU has? Every team, generally, has 10 or more available scholarship players. First, the depth has to be good depth. some of ours over the long term is marginal. Second, if you fall back on depth, you risk significantly removing the better players before they have their good stretch of minutes. Third, as coach Self has said, shortening a rotation is a must so roles are defined.
Why not keep cycling our bigs in so they are always game ready. Because some have significantly lower ceilings, and we're trying to win a national title. The best players need the game minutes to gain experience, to be at their peak come March.
Why not send a message to future recruits KU is about winning conference, conference tournament, and national championships? That's fine, but future recruits (rightly or wrongly) want playing time. But you are right. Not a bad message. It's a team game. But we also have to recognize that other schools value those things too, perhaps with the NC being the first priority, and still play the higher ceiling guys more. In fact, a great majority do it that way.
Why not send a message to future recruits that KU is a team? Can't argue there. The issue becomes whether recruits want to risk sitting behind low ceiling experience. It's the age we live in.
Actually, I didn't offer an opinion. It's kind of funny how folks just react with angry statements. The same folks that have sat obviously quiet while we have won by a combined 90 points in the last three games with Traylor playing a total of 13 minutes.
But I think last night was quite a bit different than the Lucas vs. Harvard thing, for example; or the "Traylor was the best player" vs. Loyola. Both were farces.
I thought Traylor played very well in the second half. And last night, when Traylor went in the game, it did seem like momentum switched after a few trips up and down the floor. That was a game where home crowd, momentum, etc. - you don't know how things can swing. Sure, Self could have subbed out Traylor and played Diallo or Bragg, but he did what he said he was going to do, an rode the hot hand.
But more importantly, Self isn't saying that Traylor is a 20 minutes per game guy every game. His actions have shown that it's flexible and pliable. Self has actually been pretty clear in where this is headed. That's much better than saying Traylor is a rotation mainstay. We have now moved past that I think. We know what the future holds. It's just a matter of time.
Traylor is most effective situationally. Last night seemed like a "situation" to me.
Actually, Traylor had zero turnovers and he had 3 steals. Those are big deals when he plays 20 minutes. The offensive boards were very important, of course. But Traylor was disruptive, something he has to be to be effective, and he didn't give back his steals in the way of turnovers. Which happens frequently.
This is the sort of "peak" performance game we'll see from Traylor. We'll get some of them. This was Traylor at his best, minus a few put backs that he tends to get when he's playing well. But that didn't matter last night. The consistency of good performances is what we see that is lacking. Thus why the need to have a better rotation alternative.
There is zero doubt in my mind that Self made the right decisions to win last night. That seems self-evident by our clear control of the game and the margin of victory.
I have a macro opinion of "play the best player" to reach our ceiling. But the "micro" of "win the game at hand" is a different discussion. The macro is the discussion of Diallo and Bragg, and their minutes.
It's a lot easier to accept the playing time for Traylor when it appears clear that Self has moved past the idea of Traylor as a 20 mpg guy every night. Much, much easier.
Ok, try this ladies, is there anyone that thinks we lose last night if Jamari Traylor missed the flight to SD and didn't make the trip? I am very interested.
Play the best player.
@wrwlumpy - Just wanted to say that your pregame threads are excellent. Always an education. Thanks for taking the time to do this.
And SDSU losing to Grand Canyon. Wow. Grand Canyon got beat by Louisville by 45 points.
... is for Bill Self to take his own words to heart.
Just thought this was interesting -- I just checked in on Tyler Davis' stats.
His Player Efficiency Rating is an excellent 29.8. No player on Kansas other than Brannen Greene (who has played just 5 games) is higher.
He has scored 11.8 points per game, 6 rebounds per game, in 20.4 minutes per game. But what is most impressive is that his field goal percentage is 78%, and 83.7% at the rim. The last two games he was a combined 11 - 11 from the field (vs. Baylor and K-State). He's averaging double figures in points against Texas A&M's six "real" opponents: Texas, Syracuse, Gonzaga, Arizona St., Baylor, and K-State.
Of course I didn't say that. You said one thing, and had said something else previously (or at least I felt that the positions were significantly conflicted) thus I pointed it out. I don't understand your response here. So part of the discussion should not be pointing out inconsistent statements? Sorry, but if I see an inconsistency like that, and I actually remember it, I'll point it out.
@jaybate-1.0 Your Franken Five, Composite Five -- heck, maybe even Jackson Five -- I have a thought.
You have combined the stats of five players who combined to play 59 minutes. Perry played 24 minutes. To at least roughly account for the time played when Perry wasn't on the floor, it would seem reasonable to do a minutes calculation there. Meaning, the true composite 5 should get the benefit of 16 minutes when Perry wasn't on the floor when one of them was playing the four spot.
So I divided the stats by 56 minutes, which is the difference between Ellis and the 80 total post minutes; multiplied times 40.
The composite 5 over 40 minutes would be 15.7 points and 15 rebounds for the Montana game.
You've brought up Embiid. In 2014-15, we had Embiid, Black, and Traylor that covered the 5 spot opposite of Ellis 27 minutes.
In 52.7 minutes per game, that composite 5 average 21.7 points and 16.1 rebounds for the season.
Over 40 minutes, the 2013-14 composite 5 averaged 16.47 points and 12.22 rebounds.
Over 40 minutes, the 2015-16 composite 5 is averaging 15.40 points and 12.29 rebounds.
So this I think supports @jaybate-1.0's point. Our composite 5 this season compares well with our five spot in 2013-14, when we had two NBA players contributing there (Embiid and Black).
When I considered in 2013-14 that Embiid always played the five spot, and factored Black and Traylor off the balance of the minutes, the totals were 17.08 points and 12.66 rebounds. So that increased it a bit. (also, as a note, I didn't factor in Lucas' minutes in 2013-14 as they were very low).
For 2015-16, we really can't do that given how everyone moves around. I guess Lucas and Mick never play together and are always the five on the floor. But maybe I'm just too lazy to try to figure that out.
Now, we are shooting team first. That won't change. We don't have the back to the basket post feed dude, and we're the best shooting team ever under Self, according to Self.
Our 16 three pointers vs. Montana and Oregon State is absolutely fine when we're averaging 19.5 for the season per game. We won by 40 something last night, and 16 vs. OSU. Pace is really our first priority.
The key will be what happens in a tough game at AFH vs. OU, or on the road at OSU, or KSU? Will Self's butt pucker? Will he script an attack down the stretch that requires the post feed as the first option?
Until that test comes, we truly won't know. But 19.5 three point attempts per game is perhaps the "Goldilocks Zone." A few less on some nights, a few more on others.
The absolute best thing about these comments is that it truly gives us hope that this Kansas team will be given the opportunity to reach its ceiling. Really, that's it. It doesn't guarantee anything. But as @DoubleDD said, "KU and coach are going to be hard to beat."
I do want to point out something I've said in the past. Self is absolutely right on the best, most reliable way to score -- it's near the basket. If you can have effective back to the basket scoring, that's the best path. This team, and last season's team, don't have that. The recognition now moving forward perhaps about who we are from a strength standpoint and playing to that strength is very important.
What we have to understand is that there may be nights we might lose because we don't shoot well. It's the same as nights we might lose because we miss bunnies, or close shots. That happened even when we did have back to the basket scoring. Heck, TRob had a couple of rough games we lost his final season (shooting percentage wise). It happens.
@MackJayhawk - Thanks for the kind comments. I know a lot of folks just come here to read. And there have been plenty of times I've been wrong -- the infamous "no rank Frank" thing. But hey, now he's my favorite player, and we can all forget that, right? And regarding @jaybate-1.0 -- you know, sometimes, it's an investment when you read. Like a good dividend stock. Reliably good. Gotta invest, though. And the two guys you cite, @drgnslayr and @ralster. Absolutely two of the best. Great perspectives.
@KUSTEVE Can you imagine coach Self actually coaching, embracing the three? In truth, we've been seeing it most of this season I think. Some regression here and there. But largely he's embraced it. I think the pace this team plays at, and Self seeing that we can score in other ways, has made this a softer landing for him. I have to admit, though, I'm still skeptical a bit -- last season, I declared The Death of the Post Feed. And thought Self had accepted it. But I was way premature there. This feels different maybe because Self actually said it.
@DoubleDD After all, Self did say he "learned a lot" from the WUGs. It was an interesting quote. We will see.
@approxinfinity Me or Bill Self .. seeing a shrink that is? I might need to be medicated if this is all a grand illusion.
Something we have discussed before was whether Self's insistence on making this team into something it wasn't, was "delusional." @Texas-Hawk-10 posted a thread asking Is Bill Self Insane?
While we all have engaged in hyperbole here and there to make our point -- @Texas-Hawk-10 said, "KU’s personnel is in no way, shape, or form capable of running Bill Self’s system against elite level programs." That's just fact. The post feed, as we have seen for years, may truly be dead for this season.
Has Bill Self admitted to his temporary insanity, at least by the Albert Einstein definition?
Ah, but now is not the time to ask such questions. I don't want to poke my right leaning compadre, @JayHawkFanToo -- so I will withdraw the question. It is the time to point the ship forward and simply hope that that the Tentative Deal I felt was occurring after the Oregon State game actually holds.
If Bill Self has accepted the strengths of this team, and will permit it to play to those strengths, it is truly one of the best days in Kansas basketball under coach Self.
@Texas-Hawk-10 No, i read absolutely correct.
The statements I put in quote are your words. I just went to a prior thread to get them.
Look at the Statistical Nightmare thread.
There you said exactly what I quoted. You said “I"m not disagreeing about Mickelson being the better overall player, but Landen Lucas is currently KU’s best rebounder.” You also acknowledged that “the evidence from Korea [was] that Mickelson compliments Ellis much better that Traylor or Lucas does.”
You also said, comparing Lucas, Traylor, Mick, that, "Hunter is probably the best overall player of the 3 …"
My purpose of this thread was to compare Mickelson to Withey. Withey had problems guarding on the perimeter just like Mickelson. And actually, as my statistical comparison between the two shows, they are actually quite similar. We played an entire season with Withey on the floor for 30 minutes per game, and we got to the national championship team. That team had TRob. This team, though, has a much, much better collection of perimeter players.
I truly do not understand your defense comment at all. You are apparently seeing defense in just one tunnel -- i.e., when one is away from the basket. There are many, many more elements to defensive basketball that need to be considered.
@ParisHawk cites a link on Mick being one that is creating defensive havoc. I used the word "disruptive" in my post game thread after Oregon St. While he blocks shots at roughly the rate as Withey, he also gets a high rate of steals -- 2.4 per 40 vs. 1.0 for Withey. That's a possession and a half per game. Did you also see his tip aways and how he contests the ball (vs. Holy Cross especially). That's part of defense.
When you compare Mick to Traylor, Mick has 6 steals in 88 minutes, Traylor (the faster supposed energy guy) just 3 in 127 minutes. And Lucas, he has just 1 in 97 minutes. That's part of defense.
And that doesn't even touch on blocked shots, which are clearly an important defensive stat; and for this team (rim protection) perhaps a much more important statistic. Mick is much better than the others. Mick 13 blocks in 88 minutes. Traylor 5 in 127 minutes. And Lucas, just 1 in 127. Mick changes shots, and Mick effects other drivers to the hoop. Further, he has length to block shots if defenders are past him a bit. That's part of defense.
How do folks not see this? Mick is a better overall defender than either Lucas or Traylor. And he fits perfectly with this team.
If Self values defense over everything, why did he play Lucas based on his alleged ability against a 3/4 deny on the post? I laugh at that because Lucas can't score in the post as @ralster has pointed out very well in the past.
And that ties into Self's comment yesterday -- he admitted that he was trying to make this team into something it wasn't/isn't. Making a lineup decision based on that, hoping we can get post scoring, is as you said: Delusional (and I'm going to give you props for that in another thread).
Also, to my Bragg reference, you also said just 30 days ago that "Bragg isn’t ready to contribute at KU yet.", which was utter nonsense. You also said, "Bragg isn’t physically ready yet and I called that during Korea as well." This all about 30 days ago. At that time, you told me, "Your bias against Traylor and Lucas is clouding your judgement about what Bragg has actually done so far in Korea and the first 2 games." You then stated that not all 5 star players are ready right away. All part of your and @Crimsonorblue22's "too skinny" thing with Bragg.
My approach is to assess a kid's talents and what he brings to the floor, and compare to his competition for playing time. The guy was and is ready to play big minutes. But I have qualified that with the fact that he is a freshman, and we have to expect the growing pains. I've advocated for Bragg having big minutes from the start. I think he slots very nicely in as the first big off the bench. He's the best post player right now behind Ellis, and as I've said in other posts, he could surpass Ellis even this season.
I come back to the Bragg thing because you did not address it -- but also because my approach to Mickelson is the same with Bragg. I assess a kid's talents, what he brings to the floor, and compare that to his competition for playing time. Who gives us the better "net" on the floor?
All I ask is that you consider the value of committing to and just playing the best overall player. Why does Self pare down his rotation? it's to define roles and play the best players.
You've said Mick is the best player of the three. You've said that he best compliments Ellis of the three. You are right on both counts.
@Texas-Hawk-10 Sorry, I have to disagree. I just think you are flat wrong. Not surprising, I bet.
Your post is the "over analysis". The "micro". When you get into playing a largely inferior player major minutes because he is more effective against a three quarter deny, as Self did, you are over thinking it. When you play Lucas because he is supposedly the better rebounder, or Traylor because he switches better, or insisting you can't beat Harvard at home unless Lucas defends the Crimson's post player -- you miss the forest for the trees (And I'm referring to large blocks of P.T., not end-game situations, or very special circumstances).
It's called over-thinking it. It's "paralysis by analysis."
Traylor and Lucas are simply inferior players. You know that. You've already conceded in past posts that Mickelson is a better all around player than Lucas. I haven't seen that concession about Traylor yet. But Traylor's worse than Lucas. You said "I"m not disagreeing about Mickelson being the better overall player, but Landen Lucas is currently KU's best rebounder." You also acknowledged that "the evidence from Korea [was] that Mickelson compliments Ellis much better that Traylor or Lucas does."
Do you see what you have said there? Ellis is our primary four. 25-30 minutes per game. You said Mickelson is the better compliment. Hit the "easy button." Since Mick compliments him the best, he's the best option there, compared to Traylor or Lucas. Easy.
In your post above, you said, Mickelson "is a really bad fit for the current make up of the KU roster." That just doesn't square with your previous posts, particularly in being the best compliment for Ellis. I don't understand the comment at all, assuming you saw our last game.
Mick's PER is 23.7. Lucas' is 17.9. and Traylor is 15.0. Supposedly the latter two had been playing good this season (for them). That's true, because Lucas had a PER last season of 13.7 and Traylor 12.7. Mickelson in his limited time last season? 22.5. All just fyi.
About three weeks ago you were defending Traylor against Bragg, as a number of others were. I assume you are on board now with Bragg.
Just try opening your mind to this "play the best player" thing. Self agrees. He said so. I just hope he follows his own advice.
I'm not crowning Mick as the savior, just the best fit; for 15-18 minutes per game. Rim protection. A nice touch on his shot. Good stuff.