@JayHawkFanToo , @Woodrow
I'm not saying the top 100 players will leave. That's not going to happen. We agree on that.
But I can envision a scenario where the top 10 or 12 recruits each year go that route, plus the top 30 or 40 players from the year before also leave for the NBA draft or to go into the G-League.
Basically, each year, 40-50 of the best players in the country are not on college rosters. Basically, take this list ↗ and take the top 35 names off it, plus a handful of others.
That's what college basketball would look like. Does that kill the product? No. But it does change it quite a bit. Top guys like Malik Newman and don't transfer anymore, they just go to the G-League.
Before OAD, the top incoming freshmen would skip college. A restructured G-League would mean not only that the top freshmen would skip college, but that some of the best returning talent would also leave. That's the difference here. It's not just cutting from guys that would never go to college. It also gives guys a reason to leave early and finish their development. College basketball would lose both incoming talent and returning talent. That's the big difference.
And that doesn't even account for the money difference. One of the things likely to come out of this trial is that top players may opt to take paydays from ShoeCos and go to the G-League, supplementing the salary. Because ShoeCos could legally pay those guys to do that, there's not as much need to push money into college athletics. It doesn't mean ShoeCos would get out of college athletics completely, but it changes the financial structure.
That's the biggest change. It's the incremental trimming around the edges. A little incoming talent here. A little returning talent there. A little TV money here. A little ShoeCo money there. Change is coming.
@Woodrow said
I did a quick search and it looks like from 1995-2005 39 players who skipped college got drafted. Some not even first round. That’s like 3-4 a year. Again, people over grossly over estimating the impact that will have.
That's 3 or 4 that were judged to be ready to play in the NBA. So if 3 or 4 per year are ready to play in the NBA, plus another 6 to 8 ready to play in the G-League, plus a couple of projects, plus a slight increase in the number of players leaving college early because they are ready to play in the G-League as well, you get to 40-50 pretty easily.
The talent and development drop off from not having to be NBA ready immediately makes a huge difference.