@Blown: No, agree on the closer thing in baseball. But I'm just not so sure that it's a good analogy here. I agree, play your best players in crunch time. But I basically think that you play your best players, but also you play players so that your team is at peak efficiency. So you need subs so that guys aren't dead; and you need subs that may offer different things. But with Embiid, he should start and play as much as possible given conditioning and game situation. Man, I don't think it's close.
@KansasComet, @globaljaybird, @JayHawkFanToo, and others that have mentioned Lucas - I would agree that he looked serviceable, and has looked like he could give serviceable minutes. If you were to make me choose right now, I guess I'd choose Lucas. But I really am non-committal there. I do think Black should be given a try off the bench first.
@drgnslayr - Interesting bringing up Perry being given a free pass to loaf. Jimmy Johnson always said he treated his stars differently than his marginal players ... meaning it wasn't the same rules for everyone. I agree with that philosophy at the pro level. Not at the college level. I've seen Wiggins loafing too. And as we know, the quick hook applies more to those that are marginal rotation guys. It's always been that way.
@drgnslayr - Man, I like Black too. I was never sold on him coming in and being an impact player. I was sold on him being protection, so to speak, for Ellis .. big dude, physical. Memphis fans cautioned us. Of course, we as Jayhawks fans figured it was something Pastner was doing wrong ... Black didn't even start his junior year at Memphis. As I posted at the time of the signing on some other website, that should tell us something. But I'm surprised at his ineffectiveness thus far, notwithstanding the foul situation.
I don't think Black goes to the scrap heap. But I do think that coming off the bench for him is worth a try. Some guys just do better in that role. Don't know if it would help. But given the results now, I think bringing Black off the bench is certainly worth a try.
@RockChalkinTexas - Because Black's still starting. We've all generally operated under the assumption that starting, playing time, being in at the end of the game .. all of that stuff is earned with coach Self.
Odd, but I think the discussion Self apparently had with Kelly Oubre that was well publicized fits with what is going on here with Black. Oubre was (apparently) told that if he'd come to KU, he take Wiggins' spot in the lineup. Sounded like at least a quasi-guarantee.
Tarik Black has been an unmitigated disaster. Whatever the reason or circumstance, Black was supposed to be a rock in this lineup. Protect Ellis. Bring physicality. Rebound. Give us good minutes. Let Embiid develop. Remember all of the talk that Embiid might never start this season?
He has been none of that, and worse. He has been a fouling machine. I can only remember one Black foul where I thought it was a bad call (and I don't recall the game). But nothing stands out. Even when he's played, he's been just ok. He's shown some flashes, but just a few.
The discussion on Black is just reality. That reality can change tonight. It's not "trash Tarik Black." It is what it is. And it's exactly what Memphis fans said when we took him in. And it's exactly what the stats told us before he arrived.
Two rationales for Black continuing to start:
Self provided a guarantee to Black that if he would come to KU, he would have a starting spot. The competition was fierce in the spring to sign Black -- a lesson in supply and demand. Hard to imagine it was for the entire season; maybe for a certain amount of games, or through the break. Don't know.
Self sees Black starting as being immaterial. He lets Black come in, do his foul thing, and brings Embiid in. Perhaps seeking to protect Embiid from those early fouls.
If it was option 2, Self might have alluded to that. He hasn't. Further, Embiid can foul as easily in the second 5 minutes of the game as the first 5 minutes.
To me, it's pretty clear that Black got a guarantee of some sort. In listening to the press conferences, no one has asked coach Self that question. There is no doubt Embiid should be starting over Black. That can't even debated.
Heck, I think there is a good argument to start Traylor over Black; and even Lucas over Black right now.
I come from the perspective that I love zone defenses, particularly the 1-3-1. I think it is the best basketball defense. So I'm a bit biased there. Self obviously favors the 3-2.
But my only question is whether zone defense the best thing for a coach Self coached team? For a team that is coached by a guy so passionate about man to man defense?
I think it can be used effectively. Self used it very effectively with another very athletic group in 2008. But they were much more experienced.
Not sure that this is "the" answer. But it may be a part of the answer. Meaning, I think that Self can be a primarily man team, but use zone more liberally as needed with this team. Or situational based on opponent. I don't share Rustin Dodd's concern about practice time. There's room for both. Many teams practice both and use both. Michigan last season was a great example. Bielein is a zone guy, but they used man quite a bit.
Zone can make guys lazy; tough to rebound if you don't find someone to box out. And if you've got a shooter or two from outside, it can obviously be devastating -- kind of the reverse of our discussion regarding our shooting.
I think it makes sense here as a significant part of the gameplan. I do think it can provide better protection. For our fouling bigs, namely Embiid. Self went to it Saturday for a reason.
Yes, I think zone will better protect post players. Not perfect, but better. Embiid's the one I'm concerned about. Ellis doesn't foul a lot.
Yes, I would really like Embiid to stop hedging. If I'm an opposing player, my strategy is to just dribble at him. Period.
On Embiid's ball screens, just get his feet shoulder width apart, and not so wide.
I would not go with a quicker lineup with Self's 3-2. He'll have his 1 and 2 guards on the wings. Post guys low. But you can play small in the zone since you always have help.
I think zone will have minimal impact on the offense, but may help a bit on the break as guys are in lanes, spacing is more uniform, guards are on the wings, etc.
Prior to Saturday's game, coach Self said "We ain't going zone." Further, Self said that he didn't want to give the kids the mindset that they could be bailed out by playing zone. Then he promptly played zone. I thought it was a great decision at the time.
Jesse Newell posted a terrific column analyzing the zone defense and posing the question of whether Self should focus the team on zone defense the rest of the way. His logic is that we have a team with a number of one and dones, and the window is closing. Couple that with the new hand-checking rules and our obvious inability to stay out of foul trouble, zone should be a serious consideration.
Newell alluded to Self needing to realize the hand-checking rules have changed the game. I'll go a step further -- is coach Self struggling with teaching defense given how the new application of the rules has put his philosophy, literally, on the chopping block? Think about it. His guiding philosophy of aggressive, tough, hard nosed, physical defense has been ravaged by the new application of the rules. Worse, as we've seen, the new application is horribly inconsistent. Self's teams have always been defense first. Tough man-to-man. How can this team, with multiple freshman, fit that mold when the application of the rules essentially diminishes the ability to play the way Self wants to play?
What we've seen is significant foul trouble, particularly with our post players. Many have been when the post players are defending out on the floor, or in situations where there is very little contact. Our four primary post players, Embiid, Traylor, Ellis, and Black have combined for 86 fouls. The rest of the team, combined, has 88.
I have great confidence in saying now what I said in October -- Joel Embiid is the player that will most determine our fate this season. We need him on the floor. No one matches up with Embiid's height and skill set. Protecting Embiid from foul trouble may be the most important task ahead for this team to win the national championship. Further, Tarik Black has been rendered useless. He can't avoid fouling. Heck, he's probably fouling right now.
Could a shift to zone protect our post players, while not sacrificing points on the defensive end? Is a shift to being a primary zone team the move that will put this team in the best position to succeed? Or as Newell asks, "Self has speed and length and depth, so forcing this young team into his tough, man-to-man style may or may not be what's best for KU in the long run."
Rustin Dodd of the KC Star brought up a great point on Twitter -- there is only so much practice time available. Self would need to decide pretty quickly if zone was going to be his focus.
We know Self is a man-to-man purist. So such a switch is a long-shot. But he used the box and one and triangle and two to lead us to the title game in 2011-12. Perhaps it is in the realm of reason.
Newell's column is worth a detailed read. Link below.
@ParisHawk - The new rules interpretations are hurting us. It seemed in Self's comments last week he was struggling with the changes. He referenced on Hawk Talk that it takes away aggressiveness, and that's how we normally play. We had 26 fouls yesterday, CU had 16. That is a huge discrepancy. Seemed like we missed out on a few non-calls, like Wiggins getting fouled when he scored and maybe Ellis on our last bucket, but nothing astounding really. Heck, he said before the game in his press conference that "We ain't going zone." And that he would not play zone before conference play because it would send the wrong message and bail the guys out. He then played zone (which was a good decision at the time, I thought -- I Iove a good zone defense and personally think it should be practiced and used regularly). But new rules or not, we keep getting called for fouls.
@drgnslayr - You said; "It won't help to give any of our shooters more minutes until we can run an offense that creates good shooting space for them, and they get hit with chest-high passes and can flow through their shots. What's Conner's shooting % from trey this year? 20-something? He won't shoot better just because he gets more shots. He's been forcing his stuff. Same with Greene and White. These guys were decent in the first few games, when opponents hadn't practiced enough defense to limit our shooting space."
Help me understand your thinking there. We have been getting good looks. We've been getting the normal looks you'd get in a normal game. I haven't seen any of the three forcing threes. Perhaps I'm missing something, but of the 5 three point shots by Greene/CF/AW3, only one looked questionable (one of CF's).
@approxinfinity - In my humble opinion, top three ways to beat a zone defense, in order -- meaning what is the most effective way: 1. Immediate entry pass. 2. 3 point shooting. 3. Penetrating and attacking the seams. 4. Ball reversal or skip passes.
Obviously, the first option rarely presents itself. I think items 3 and 4 are the most reliable ways to beat the zone, meaning you pound away. Three point shooting can ebb and flow. Ours is ebbing. But when it's flowing, or partially flowing, it's hard to beat. It gets folks out of zones quickly.
Interestingly, Tad Boyle said after the game that if we would have hit some outside shots early, he would have abandoned the zone. And that kind of goes to my point ... we bust the zone with a few threes, our zone problems disappear.
There is no definitive answer here. But I do think it's wise to not focus solely on three point shooting as some have noted. The three point shooting, from a purely objective statistical standpoint, has been lacking. It's easy to point our fingers at because we can see the numbers.
A stat to digest - KU is shooting 29.8% from 3 point range. The only Big 12 team that is worse than KU from 3 point range? K-State, at 26.4%.
Against Villanova, we were 2-11 from three point range -- 18.2%.
Against Colorado, we were 5-20 from three point range -- 25%.
I understand a lot goes into winning and losing. Nothing is the sole cause. That's undeniable. Maybe it's a pie-graph. This is a big slice and the most significant reason for our two losses. If we shoot the ball a bit better from 3 point range in both games, say 33%, chances are very high we're sitting at 8-0 right now.
@konkeyDong - First, buddy, you need to post more. And kD chooses AW3. SOLD! You laid out his case perfectly. With Greene, I would say that he has an intensity edge to him that this team lacks a bit. He seems emotional. We lack that a bit. Self said we lack vocal players -- he seems vocal. He is the best pure shooter, as you note. I would also suggest that he can get to the rack a bit, and I agree with you that Greene has an edge defensively. But I'm happy to defer to your choice -- now go convince coach Self!
@nuleafjhawk - Very funny about CF. I recall back to the summer scrimmage when he was the man. I needed that chuckle this morning. He needs to work in the weight room, let his body mature, red shirt next season, and then, in his redshirt sophomore season, we'll have a player.
@ParisHawk - Interesting comment on Selden. I guess you noticed Tharpe playing 28 minutes, and Selden 20? And Self seeming to prefer Tharpe over Selden with Mason? My guess is that won't be an issue in February.
@KansasComet - You aren't concerned in the least bit about 3 point shooting? Come on, not even a little bit? I do agree with you that free throw shooting is a concern, certainly with our checkered history in that regard. But how you can simply dismiss 3 point shooting makes me feel like the Aflac duck. Check out that the 3 point percentage below 30%. Not at all .. not the "least bit" concerned?
"Beating A Dead Horse" Alert -- Apologies In Advance
This game came down to the same thing many games may come down to with this team ... three point shooting. It's something we're sorely lacking.
Greene, Frankamp, and White were a combined 0-5, each playing 4 minutes. Tharpe, Wiggins, Selden, and Mason -- they won't shoot 40% from three, right? But Greene, Frankamp, or White? That's their game.
This is not hard. Pick one, let them play about 15 minutes a game. Self admitted this past week that he does need to choose one. He admitted that he needs to only be playing five perimeter players. He said that neither of the three had separated from the other two.
But not choosing one hurts this team. Pick one. Play only one. Give him rotation minutes.
Again, I go straight to Bill Self admitting that they need to go with just one. His words. Why would Self think that he needs to settle on one guy?
Here's why, and Self knows this - the chosen one will get in the flow of the game, get reps, get confidence, adjust to the game situations, and be able to relax and hit shots. As of now, they pinball in and out getting a little sniff of game action, and are being expected to execute a very difficult skill ... the most difficult skill on the court.
Playing one and only one will give this team what it desperately needs. Seriously, what would be going through your mind playing? "Don't make a mistake, I'll get yanked." Shooters need to be able to shoot, and looking over their shoulder, and not being able to even be in the game for any substantial period, certainly diminishes the chance that they will be effective.
Of course I can't say for sure .. but I'm pretty darn confident in this speculation .. if one of those three players (Greene, Frankamp, White) had played the 12 minutes allotted to the three combined and shot the 5 three pointers that the combined three shot, he (anyone of the three) would have made at least one of the those three point attempts.
Interestingly, and simplistically, that was our margin of defeat. Heck, I bet if any of three would have taken five, they would have made at least two. Each of these guys are elite shooters. They are the only elite shooters on the team. As Self said, he needs to pick one, and play only one in the rotation.
Today we shot 5-20 from three point range. No ballroom with weird lighting to blame. Lots of things contribute to losses. But this facet of the game has a potential cure right there on the bench. All Self needs to do, as he said, is pick one.
Again, my apologies. I beat that dead horse again just to make myself feel better. Please shoot me and put me out of my misery. Am I the only one thinking that if we can just get a little outside shooting, the entire offensive end will flow better? Why do I wake up in the middle of the night dreaming of Brannen Greene going 4 of 6 from three point range? Why do I talk to my wife about Andrew White? I need help.
@globaljaybird - I watched Cauley-Stein, too. Shavon Shields (now at Nebraska) was the best player on that team. I found Cauley-Stein to be lazy, up and down, easily pushed around -- relying solely on his height for advantage. I saw a marginal 6'6" kid I had previously coached, who ended up at an NAIA school, basically shut him down and control him. Cauley-Stein didn't work. At the time, I had no problem with KU being out of the mix with Cauley Stein.
@drgnslayr - when you say "rule interpretations" now, I feel my blood pressure rising. Self said it perfectly on Hawk Talk, how a defender is moving with an offensive player and the offensive player leans to create the contact ... the defensive player should be entitled to his space. I watched some Depaul/ASU this morning (I know, better things to do in life). A number of plays with contact like that, but no call. Thought it was pretty well officiated. A handful of ticky-tacks.
@wrwlumpy - Remember 2011-12? Wesley would come in the game, breath, and get a foul. jaybate and I used to joke about that. It was like the refs saw KU with 2 team fouls and our opponent with 7, and took it out on Wesley. Of course, Wesley did foul many times. But I do believe that the better players get more slack, and the subs then get the brunt when it's time to even out the fouls. Refs are human .. they might see TRob with 3 fouls at the 16 minute mark in the second half and let some contact slide; then when Wesley comes in, he looks at an offensive player the wrong way and gets a whistle. Works for me. Everyone's happy. We'll see Embiid start pretty soon I think.
@iowajayhawk2005: certainly a plausible scenario regarding the move being motivation. It will of course have that secondary impact at the least. I posted the other day about last season. About this time, Self was plainly upset with Tharpe and said if something didn't change, there would be changes. Self wasn't happy with much in Tharpe's game at that point. He was razor close to seeing Rio Adams get the backup PG minutes. Then the light switch went on.
I have sensed that Tharpe has never been a favorite of Self, meaning "Self's kind of player." Before the season, Self had said some nice things about Tharpe. I just think/sense that this change is more about performance than motivation. And more about Self thinking this team is just better with Mason starting.
Interesting watching the UK/Baylor game last night .. Calipari played four of his starters 35 or more minutes, and the other one 33 minutes. Bench played a combined 21 minutes. And Baylor beat UK shooting 2/11 from 3 point range. Rico Gathers (who?) had 13 boards for Baylor -- and as @KirkIsMyHinrich pointed out, Baylor dominated the boards. Willie Cauley-Stein has a sum total of 3 rebounds in the 33 minutes.
@globaljaybird - "I am also of the firm belief that when JE is on the floor with Frank & the other starters, no one can be doubled & that is a field day opp for the rest. Perry has proven this several times. In contrast with Traylor, Black or Landon out there, opposing defenses can sluff off one & our others seem to freeze up & stand around befuddled with an extra defender applying pressure." Exactly right. There is a clear delineation between our post players when it comes to "starter quality" and "reserve quality."
@drgnslayr - You know how I will answer the question on getting more perimeter shooting. I think it is incredibly easy. Play Brannen Greene 15+ per game. Problem completely solved in my simplistic mind. But do you really think no one is guaranteed playing time? How bad would Wiggins have to be to find the bench?
@justanotherfan - Don't sell Mason short yet on being a pass first guy. Not saying he will be, but I sense he has a nice sense for the dish. But my question is whether Self really wants a pass first PG, despite all of us wanting one? He did have TT manning the ship all those years. -- and TT had no real sense for the dish.
@JayHawkFanToo Your take on Black is probably the best speculation we can make. A little guarantee on starting.
@truehawk93 - I know there is a Lucas contingent. I have to admit that I'm at least more curious now that he got some real minutes in Atlantis, particularly when Traylor is not rebounding the ball and Black looks marginal.
Well, that was fast. Self began the season stating that Tharpe was our most important player. Now he's not starting. Self has been hinting at this move for while -- the references to "playing faster" with Mason, comparing Mason to Chalmers, etc.
Self deserves tons of credit here, in my opinion, regardless of whether the decision ends up being correct or incorrect. He made a tough, gutsy call and pulled the trigger to the detriment of an upperclassman. In my "hard decisions" post prior to Atlantis, I suggested that one the things Self should consider doing is if he thought Mason was better and would allow us to play better basketball, then he should make the switch now.
If Self didn't think this decision would plainly make our team better, he wouldn't do it. That's at least the most likely explanation.
Another low percentage possibility explanation -- he's trying to motivate Tharpe by pulling the trigger this early. Maybe so. Maybe a little of both. This is about the same time last season when Self stated he may need to go a different direction at the backup PG spot; and then Tharpe turned a corner. By I doubt that. This is a big decision.
Now, when Self says Mason deserves this, I agree. But one question I have ... if there is that amount of separation between Mason and Tharpe to give Mason the starting role, how much separation does there need to be for Embiid to get the start over Black? Unless Self gave Black his word on starting when he was recruiting him. Would be interesting to know Self's rationale there.
@truehawk93 -I agree we have a nice shot at Turner, but don't you think that our shot at Turner hinges on whether not only Embiid turns pro, but also Ellis?
If Alexander is here and Ellis stays then one of the top 5 players in the country -- Alexander or Turner -- would have to come off the bench if we landed Turner. Doesn't seem likely to me.
If Embiid turns pro and Turner goes elsewhere, we still have Alexander and Ellis starting, but will have to look to Traylor, Lucas, and/or Mickelson to be our 3rd and 4th post rotation guys. Not optimal but not horrible.
Scary thing .. Ellis and Embiid turn pro, and Turner goes elsewhere. That's a "yikes."
"Starting at forward, a 6'8" junior, number 31, Jamari Traylor "
@Blown - I tried to keep it short and sweet. The caller before me asked about how KU got Danny Manning and hired his dad -- and MU troll -- and got hung up on.
@KUinLA - That is a great point where Self said each could win 3 or 4 games for us. It reminds me of last season when Self, a couple occasions, said that he should be playing AW3 more; and then didn't. And I would agree. I think that Greene looks like the best pure shooter of the three -- meaning that is picture perfect form. He repeats it each time.
@globaljaybird - Now, when you say a "color", you mean White or Greene, not the white kid, right? I say that because one of the preseason games, Billy Thomas was doing the in studio analyst work. He mentioned that the White/white kid was a good shooter. He didn't clarify as to which White/white kid he was referring to. Both ways he was right, though.
Following up on my post this past weekend on three point shooters, I went straight to the source -- coach Bill Self. On Hawk Talk Monday, I called and asked coach Self the following: We have three shooters, Greene, Frankamp, and White, that haven't gotten consistent minutes. How much consideration have you given to choosing either Greene, Frankamp, or White, and giving one of them rotation minutes so that they can get acclimated and comfortable? And, second, is one of them ahead of the other two?
Self said we could obviously use perimeter shooting. He said ideally, yes, we have to get to where we play just one. They had discussed that. But Self said that he just doesn't know who that guy is yet. He said we need to get to where we play five perimeter players. Four guys separated themselves early -- Tharpe, Mason, Selden, and Wiggins. But between the other three, none has separated themselves yet. He also mentioned other team deficiencies like ball handling and defense.
So there you have it. Apparently, Hawk Talk is being aired on TV on Tuesday, Dec. 3, on the famous Jayhawk Sports Network tomorrow (TWC, etc).
It certainly sounded as if Self wanted to pick one and will pick one -- he just hasn't decided between the three. He said clearly that we wants to get to a five man perimeter rotation. So as a few of you pointed out, perhaps the decision time is not here yet.
And hey, try this .. would we be a better team right now without Wiggins?
Imagine that Wiggins just didn't happen. We signed Merv Lindsay II.
Andrew White started at the 3, all season. Or Greene. Are we a one loss team? Are we better? How good is White or Greene? Maybe we lose to Duke, but beat Villanova?
I do feel pretty confident that as Wiggins gets more comfortable, he'll be playing at a very high level. I do question, as a team, if at the end of the season we'll be better off for having Wiggins, or if we would have been better off if it never happened.
Lots of season to go. I'm ready for the guy to explode for 30.
I think the comment by @drgnslayr sums it up perfectly - "There is nothing wrong with Andrew Wiggins. The only thing wrong was the disproportionate amount of publicity he has received without ever having to earn it."
With that said, if Wiggins does flop this year -- by those lofty, unfair standards, it may set Self back a bit with the top few guys. That may not be all bad as @JayDocMD posits (me being very anti-presumed OAD).
In my little world, Wiggins is flop if 1) One of our potential four year guys -- CF/White/Greene -- transfer, and 2) if we don't win a national championship. To me, if one of those guys transfer, the price was too high unless we win the title.
“The Jayhawks really lack three point shooting on their roster.” Or something to that effect. That thought from Stan Van Gundy. Of course, Van Gundy doesn’t know the KU roster. He just sees missed three pointers and a low percentage. Van Gundy made the last two games of this tournament agonizing. He needs to return to coaching – anywhere. But that’s another story. The real story is why our three point shooting remains on the bench.
The bigger point is what Van Gundy properly analyzed – KU won’t be an elite team without elite outside shooting. Van Gundy knows what he is talking about there.
Jesse Newell, today, asked if KU’s three point shooting should be a concern. Jesse knows KU’s roster -- great question. The answer is yes, but only if Self continues to manage the minutes distribution as he has over the first seven games of this season.
KU’s three point shooting should be and is a concern right now only because coach Self has refused to make one of our three point threats a regular member of the rotation. Look at the UTEP game. Self played Frankamp five minutes, White four minutes, and Greene didn’t get a sniff.
Memo to Van Gundy: The Jayhawks do have three point shooting on their roster. Self just isn’t utilizing it.
The talk heading into the season was that the Jayhawks had an incredibly deep roster. Self had multiple options. Lots of discussion on the outside shooting that Greene, Frankamp, and White could bring. But Self has been paralyzed by indecision. He’s played each of them in spurts, but no consistency. Paralysis by analysis, perhaps. Maybe he doesn’t know what he wants to do? Maybe he doesn’t know who he wants to play? Maybe he doesn’t trust any of them? The answer so far is potluck -- Self is playing everyone a little bit. Perhaps he’s trying to keep everyone happy.
But far more concerning is that Self actually does know what he wants to do. That Self has decided that he really doesn’t need to play any of our shooters as a regular part of the rotation. My fear is that Self will continue to ignore this valuable and necessary asset.
When we won the national title in 2008, we had two reliable outside shooters – Chalmers and Rush. Both were above 40% from three point range. Do you see anyone on this roster, other than Greene, White, or Frankamp, that will sniff that? I don’t. Maybe Tharpe, but I wouldn’t bank on it.
One thing we don’t know is what is going through Self’s mind. White, Frankamp and Greene pinball in and out with no rhyme or reason, and no consistency. That doesn’t benefit anyone.
Let me state one thing I believe with conviction – players cannot get comfortable, get in the flow, and be expected to perform being handled like this. It’s easy to say that every player needs to be ready. It’s a much different thing to do it. A role provides comfort. Repetition creates familiarity. Comfort and familiarity lets a player “play” and not “think” as much.
This team has three-point shooting. It’s right there on the bench. Self just needs to exploit the terrific resource that his recruiting has placed at his doorstep. That is best served, in my opinion, by picking one of the three and giving that three-point threat a solid 15+ minutes in the rotation, every game. Give one player that comfort. Give one player that role. Let him be our three point assassin. Let him shoot without looking over his shoulder.
For my money, right now, I’d pick Brannen Greene. He’s tall, athletic, aggressive, moves well, and seems able to get to the rim. I eliminate Frankamp because of his lack of size and versatility. White is a close call with Greene. Anyone reading this knows what I mean. But I just think Greene seems to have a little of that “alpha dog” in him, and appears to have a more diverse skill set.
I’m stating the obvious here, but shooting can change the game, it can keep you in games, and it can minimize other shortcomings. It also provides diversity in the offense that will permit other aspects of the game to open up. We just need to capitalize on what we have available.
@drgnslayr - "Everyone knows I'm a huge Bill Self fan. But I have one valid criticism about his coaching... it is his lack of getting his troops psyched up to play every game."
I love your points. I take it you (like myself) do not subscribe to jaybate's selective "amping" theory? Self is responsible for leading this team, and for motivating it.
You mentioned looking for the player that speaks out. Agreed. But I saw something last night that may or may not be a turning point with this team -- I saw Frank Mason say "This is my team." Not literally, but by his actions on the court. I might be a bit premature there - not the first time in my life. And Self, of course, will have the final word on that. But I'm not sure he can ignore it.
@Blown - Wow. I missed that travel. Just went back and looked at it. Unreal.
Did anyone notice that Self said after the game that he should have "maybe" called a timeout after the 3 pointer, presumably to set something up? My first thought was, yea, like spreading out and letting EJ drive to the basket? He's demonstrated in the past that he won't call an actual play in that situation, even with the season on the line. Why would he call something now? But he did take the timeout, down 4, with 2 seconds left.
Trap and Tempo:
He allowed Nova to dictate tempo, did not attack the trap. I was ready to jump through my TV set. But maybe coach Self can look back at this game and reassess our approach to the trap.
Go look at the video and you can see two distinct half court traps by Villanova. First, they used a 1-2-2. That's a more conservative trap. You've got two guys nearer to the basket. Then, at appx. the 12:25 mark of the first half, Wright switched to a 1-2-1-1. More aggressive.
The trap is basically players in a diamond, with one guy back. The back guy on the diamond is the interceptor (Nova's #5 in this sequence). On their first try at this, Mason attempted a lob to Traylor at the rim. Traylor didn't finish. But watch the rest of the game. We were passive. Didn't attack it.
Now go to the 10:50 mark, first half. Still 1-2-1-1. You can see how when Mason dribbled over half court, it was death. Mason knows better than that. That's the trap area. So what to do?
Pass to ball side corner: If you want to see what we were missing last night, go here. Stop the tape at 10:50. What you can't see at the 10:50 mark is Ellis in the near baseline corner. That's a trap area too. But a pass to Ellis there then allows cutters and other opportunities as Nova would move to trap. Mason could make that easy pass, and press is broken. Ellis could also attack the basket. The back player won't be moving to trap. It's the interceptor and the edge defender. An easy press break is that pass to the corner, then as they chase to the corner, a quick pass back to the guard (Mason), or to White who can move right to the elbow. Cross court would be open if the backside edge defender slid to White.
Back Screen: Again, same sequence, watch Traylor come from the far baseline corner, he is kind of flashing .. kind of. But imagine if he sets a backscreen behind Villanova player #3 before Mason crosses? Tharpe then flashes to that sideline spot near the official The back defender has to decide whether to shade Tharpe, or shade Ellis in the near corner. If he splits the difference, both are open. Either way, the press is broken. If the back defender is shading Ellis, you might have an easy bucket.
X cross: Take Ellis and Traylor from their respective spots, cross them, and screen against the outer defenders (the "2" in the 1-2-1-1). As with many screens, it isn't always the screen that beats you, it's the screener opening to the basket. Ellis, who would be opposite the ball, is the pass to be made if open. But sometimes those screens will allow the dribbler to slice the zone.
Flash: The post players (Traylor and Ellis), or the 3 (White on this sequence), Flash directly to the middle of the diamond. Most of the time, this pass isn't open. Let's say White flashed. The interceptor flows with him. Then Ellis moves up into the vacated space .. likely won't get a trap at the wing. But if interceptor doesn't flow with White, pass to White, White turns, faces and goes with Traylor and Ellis attacking for the dish. If the back edge defender picks up White on the flash, then Tharpe crosses half court hard for the cross court pass, and he attacks.
Three Flat: Bring Ellis, White (middle), and Traylor up, run them three flat across the diamond, with White square in the middle. You now have a numbers advantage. It requires two crisp passes. Mason would have all other offensive players as an option. Once that choice is made, the second pass is immediate and you can go aggressively at the rim or pull it out. Multiple options. But here's one scenario. We line up three flat. Nova's back side edge defender (far side of the "2" ), flattens down to Traylor. That leaves Tharpe open. Mason laces one across to Tharpe. Traylor then shoots to the middle, White from the middle to the sideline at the free throw line extended. Tharpe takes a dribble or two then shoots pass to White. White receives and the press is broken; but Tharpe attacks in what is a give and go set up. White may have an open three. Ellis can flash to the elbow.
Lob: As mentioned above, Mason tried this with Traylor at the 12:25 mark. Beautiful. Didn't work. But it can. And you don't have to lob to the rim. You can simply make that pass to the far corner, then rotate it out, or to a post up at the box, or flash to the elbow. Long pass, so a bit risky.
Go to 9:40 .. we come up against the press and Selden makes the exact same mistake that Mason made at 10:50. He does the same thing and dribbles right into the trap, but he escapes it. This was immediately following a timeout. I would have assumed Self would have said, "Hey, don't dribble into that trap spot." Puzzling.
At 9:40, though, you'll see a Nova wrinkle. They matched up in the ballside corner with Ellis. At 10:40, that didn't happen. Takes away the pass to the baseline corner option.
Perhaps we didn't work on press break options as much as other things.
Three Point Shooting: My first thought during and after this game was -- what a waste. We have three guys that are supposed to be major outside shooters. Three point threats. And we desperately needed outside shooting in this game. But Greene, Frankamp, and White barely got time to get in the flow. Greene shot an open three and was barked at by Self. This is the exact type of game where we needed outside shooting, but it wasn't in the game. In hindsight, White or Greene would have been better in the game, down the stretch, than Wiggins. We have a strength that is now a weakness. Self has to commit -- pick one, and play him. Let him take some threes each half. White, Greene, and Frankamp played a combined 15 minutes. Just give all those minutes to one guy -- let him gun a bit.
Press: I was perplexed as to why we didn't attack that half-court press harder. We were content to just get the ball across. Multiple options on attacking and trying to get easy buckets, but nothing. I was very disappointed with Self there. Hard middle flash, corner pass, long lob, three flat, x screen. Something. Please.
Officiating: Again, both ways. But it is nearly criminal how the officials are controlling and screwing up games. From incompetency, to inconsistency. It is just horrible. One obvious example was the phantom call to foul out Embiid. But the officials go unpunished and are never accountable. The worst of this new "approach" is when an offensive player is driving and the the defender is to his side chasing. The offensive player invades the defenders space, bumps him, and gets a foul. Every time. It goes both ways.
Hedging: Self is going to have to rethink this. We are exposing our big men to cheap fouls. Just cannot do it with Embiid. He is too valuable.
Mason: The only real alpha dog on the team, so far. Oddly, I sensed that Brannen Greene has a little of that in him. Loved his body language when he got in the game.
Post Play: Again, Tarik Black is a footnote. Actually played ok, but it was Self's call. 8 minutes of game-time. If you don't play Black in a dogfight like this, when do you play him? And Traylor got just 8 minutes. Would you trade Traylor and Black for Kevin Young? I would. But we need one of these guys to be a player.
Wiggins/Selden: Was seriously waiting for Wiggins to try to take over. Still waiting. For a while there, forgot he was on the court. Selden kind of slipped into obscurity too. Mason is playing like I thought Selden would. Still, I would have rather had Selden in than Tharpe down the stretch. Just my gut feeling at the time.
Rotation: Pick one, Greene/White/Frankamp. Give him 15+ rotation minutes every game. Other two sit. Start Embiid. Start Mason. Four freshmen in the starting lineup -- Mason, Selden, Wiggins, Ellis, and Embiid. Pick Black or Traylor, first big off the bench. Only play the other one if necessary (like tonight, with foul issues). Add in Tharpe off the bench. And go with it. 8 guys, emergency big.
Sorry, but Villanova isn't that good. We allowed them to stay in the game. That's how it will be this year except with a few of the excellent teams. We will determine our fate.
MU's "well-rounded" athletic department? Like their last NCAA title in anything being an indoor track championship in the 60s?
Anyone know how I can post a photo here? I took one of the TV Saturday during MU's game with Gardner-Webb. The arena was barren. Unbelievable, yet believable all in one.
KU partners up with TWC for unprecedented access to KU sports. Basketball is all anyone really is concerned about.
So, I don't have TWC or Comcast. But I was able to watch every game between various establishments and the in-laws.
However, the one game TWC customers don't get is on Thanksgiving day. Most will get shut-out -- how many TWC customers can bolt a family gathering on Thanksgiving; and even then, find an open establishment with the game?
I like everything about Landen Lucas. Cannot say one bad thing about him. Great kid, great family, smart -- everything @globaljaybird said. Could be a great developmental story.
I just can't get over that Rivals ranking; you know, the one that doesn't exist. Let's hope he proves to be that hard-working exception. We can all root for that.
Random thought here -- After watching some early season hoops, is it reasonable to think that if KU runs the table the next seven games -- Wake Forest, USC/Villanova, Finals of Tournament, Colorado, New Mexico, Florida, and Georgetown -- that we are the best team in the country?
Seeing other top teams play, and seeing some stub their toes, I don't think there is a better team in the nation.
On some of the items raised above, all excellent points:
-Timing: I understand that perhaps Self could wait a bit on his rotation decisions -- Christmas break, Jan. 15, or Feb. 1. Maybe he's already made decisions. We don't know. But a big reason I think it should be apparent on the court, sooner than later, is based on our schedule. We don't have just one or two games where we might need to focus on our top guys, but we have a slew of them -- the tournament this week, then Colorado, New Mexico, Florida and Georgetown. That's why I see it to be important. I don't view conference play as being more important than those games. The tournament, and those four games, may dictate our "shot" at a national title.
-#1 Seed: The "shot" at a national title is largely increased by getting a #1 seed. I've posted this in the past ... 18 of the last 25 tourney winners have been #1 seeds. That's an amazing stat. The out of conference games seem to factor into seeding quite a bit. If we can run it, going 7-0 in the tournament, then the 4 big games, our shot at a #1 seed goes way up. Winning now gives us some breathing room for a few inexplicable conference losses that seem likely with a young team.
-Youth/Chemistry/Confidence: While many other teams are young, too, we are one of the few teams where our talent is incredibly focused on our freshmen. Right now, our best starting lineup could contain 4 freshmen. Maybe. But it's clear that our best rotation contains at least 4, and maybe 5 (if Greene is superior to White). Developing chemistry and familiarity with all components of Self's system can only be an advantage going forward. I'm not saying we can't do that with 11 guys getting time, but it certainly decreases "touches" and reps in game situation. And say we lose a few conference games in a stretch .. say 3 of 5 .. looking back on our run of 7-0 in the early part of the season might be a nice confidence card Self could play. It couldn't hurt.
-Competition: Setting the rotation doesn't necessarily kill competition. Say Greene is out now. Self could easily tell the guys that game rotations will be tight, but it's still an open competition and he'll be reassessing as the season progresses. That's probably how it really is anyway. But setting the rotation means that Self has made his choice, the presumption is in favor of his choice, but other events could change it.
-Frankamp/Three Point Assassin Off The Bench: I'm not down on Frankamp at all. I value this guy as an important four year player. I have no doubt he could contribute positively this season. But when I compare him to Greene, it doesn't seem close. Not only is Greene taller by half a foot, but Greene seems like he has an excellent mid-range game. Greene seems to have the ability to drive the basketball a bit too. Frankamp seems mostly a three point threat, and Greene appears to be his equal there. Frankamp can be physically overwhelmed. If we are casting them in the role of emergency, break glass in case of fire, three point assassin off the bench, with White in the rotation, why not pick one of them so that the chosen one gets more reps, and is more comfortable? Perhaps 7 or so minutes a game, and more if needed? Otherwise, Self will just be playing hunches in selecting one from game to game. We saw pulling White off the bench last season, dead cold, sitting for multiple games in row, doesn't usually work. If this is a "role", there needs to be regular minutes -- not rotation minutes, just regular playing time. If we are to have an "on call" three point guy, I think choosing just one for that role is the best option.
-Mason: When I mentioned Mason in my post, I wasn't necessarily advocating that he start. I was saying that if Self thinks he makes us better, then Self should pull the trigger now on Mason as the starter. We can play them as a tandem, sure. That works too. I think that works fine. But if Self believes "Hey, Mason just has us playing faster, more aggressive, and overall we are a better team with him on the court", then I think Self should not hesitate to start him, and play him more. Tharpe is a huge part of this team either way. The nice thing is, it appears that we have two excellent options.
-Rotation: Ok, then -- Tharpe, Selden, Wiggins, Ellis, and Embiid as starters. Black or Traylor, Mason, and White off the bench. Greene or Frankamp as 3 point assassin when needed (maybe 7 or so minutes per game, everygame to keep them in the flow). The loser of the Black/Traylor battle becomes the 10th guy, with minutes only if there is significant foul trouble. We have lots of talented guys, that is an 8+ rotation. Seems to fit this team. As an aside, I go back and forth between Black and Traylor. But @JayHawkFanToo is pretty convincing. Traylor, though, flat disappeared last game. It's a tough call, particularly when Black transferred here for his senior season and seems like a great leader. Talk about tough choices -- Self telling a senior transfer he's the 4th post guy. Yikes. But the hard choices have to be made.
Just my opinions obviously. And from a guy that planned his day around watching the KU/ISU football game last night, I'm sure glad I can talk about hoops with all of the knowledgeable posters here.
This may be the most talented team that has set foot in AFH, from top to bottom. If coach Self departs from his prior formula for dishing out minutes and tries to keep everyone happy, this could threaten this team's ability to reach its peak. Self needs to decide on his rotation, stick with it, and make changes only when a piece appears broken. Reaching its peak means everyone doesn't play. That decision time is fast approaching given our schedule.
What we’ve seen so far is a potluck. We’ve seen the “Sure 6” – Tharpe, Ellis, Wiggins, Embiid, Mason, and Selden – get consistent rotation minutes. But that’s it.
The rest, including starter Tarik Black, have scrapped for the rest of the playing time. Self has been very unpredictable so far regarding minutes. Against Iona, six guys played significantly, and only two others had 10 minutes. That was Iona. Look at Duke -- only 7 guys with double digit minutes. White hardly played at all - 4 minutes. Greene got 8 minutes. Self played Frankamp 0 minutes vs. Duke, 10 minutes vs. Iona and 12 minutes vs. Towson. Traylor has basically been played only when needed – 13, 10, and 12 minutes the last three games. Black's role is fewer minutes due to fouls and Embiid emerging. Lucas isn't a factor.
Coming in, most thought Self’s rotation will likely be a bit wider. I had predicted and 8+ rotation – 8 guys, with a 9th getting 10-13 minutes. I had suggested the “+” guy would be Mason. That’s more than the last two seasons. Right now, the rotation has been tighter than that. The “Sure 6”, and then from game-to-game, the balance of the minutes have been spread out. And those minutes have barely been rotation level minutes (10-15 based on your preference – I like 13).
Self said going into the season opener that he wouldn’t be as generous with the minutes, and he hasn’t. But he has spread it around. Landen Lucas is really the only guy that hasn’t been a part of that. He got some well deserved scraps in blowout time vs. Towson, but that’s really it.
Harnessing all of this talent is coach Self's job. But management might be the tougher job. It may seem easier to coach with tons of talent, but I actually think it might be easier with the lines of talent more clearly drawn. Here, literally, you would have a good argument for nearly every scholarship player being in the primary rotation. Thus coach Self's challenge.
How does he keep everyone happy? How does he take 12 personalities that want to play, that really deserve to play, and get some to the accept the reality that the sheer numbers will eventually create? That’s the management thing I was referring to. But he must do a couple of things, regardless of feelings and possible discontent.
First and foremost, he can’t fight reality. And he can’t fight what he knows to be true. He has to choose. He has to make choices, and stick with those choices, to permit this team to reach its peak. The more the same guys play together, and know their roles, the better we’ll be. We have a young team. The longer he delays, the more he jeopardizes the assent of this team.
Second, he cannot let his concerns about possible transfers, keeping players happy, and trying to be fair, distract from that purpose. Again, because to do so will compromise the ultimate level that this team can ascend to this season. This is a possible national title season. It’s right there. We are clearly a title favorite, together with a handful of other teams. As Rocky said vs. Clubber Lang, “go for it.”
So what should Self do?
Start Embiid now. No doubt, he needs to simply put this young man out on the floor to start the game, and play him the maximum minutes he can considering conditioning, fouls, and situation.
Make Black the first player off the bench, but let it be a battle between he and Traylor. Black does seem to have a pretty good motor, and may do better coming off the bench. But I have seen nothing to show me that Black is better than Traylor, or the other way around.
Choose between White and Greene. One of these guys will be an invaluable member this team going forward. Just make the choice. They are not exactly the same player, but they have much the same skill set. As close as any two players on the team. Two cannot play rotation minutes with Wiggins here. This is a tough choice. The one that you don’t choose might transfer. The choice between the two could be delayed a bit. When Greene 8 minutes to White’s 4 vs. Duke, I thought, uh oh. White’s in trouble. Then Green apparently got in trouble. What we saw from White vs. Iona is exactly what you should expect from White. What we saw of Greene vs. Duke is exactly what we should expect from Greene. Hard choice. But there is not room for two in the rotation. And the chosen one needs to play. Notice how I did not make a choice.
Put Frankamp on the bench. Just do it. He’s there for emergencies. He’s there if someone gets hurt. He’s there for that road game at College Station when Self gets ticked off at a rotation guy. But it is obvious that the total package he brings does not exceed any other perimeter player.
Do not close your mind to starting Mason. I know, I’m a Tharpe guy. I’ve been referred to as being “in love with Tharpe.” I am a Tharpe guy. But I am also now a Mason guy. If coach Self thinks this team is better with Mason, which he has hinted at, then do not shy away from the choice. Self has mentioned how we play faster with Mason. That is obvious. Self may view the tandem as just that, and no reason to favor Mason over Tharpe. But if that’s his gut, then he should do it and do it as soon as possible.
As we've discussed for many years, it is survival of the fittest. I love seeing everyone play. I enjoy seeing each guy get their time. But the only thing that matters this season is a National Championship. Every move, every thought, every decision, should be done with that in mind. That will not make everyone on the roster happy. But it’s what has to happen.
@globaljaybird posted of Brannen Greene - "I would not be dismayed if he leaves before Jan 1. Disappointed yes, but surprised no."
Isn't it just too bad that this is even an issue? But it is an issue because we are stacked with high talent guys. I have posted on this topic too many times, probably. But if he transfers, that is the price we pay for Andrew Wiggins. When KU signed Wiggins, it was obvious someone would get squeezed -- the 2/3 spots. Right now it's Greene. Thus what I said when we signed Wiggins -- the only acceptable outcome is a national title. That's the only thing that would make it worth it. If no one transfers, that could be revised.
That being said, Wiggins' signing has boosted our profile some, and may have led to Alexander and/or Oubre. But here we go on the OAD merry go round, still holding out hope that Oubre's dad is right and he's not an OAD.
@Hawk8086 posted - "You know, when we play well, like we did in the first half, it seems that year after year Self's teams look the same"
Yes, they do. And they have halves like we just saw each season. And they'll play well in conference play.
Look, this season will be defined by a national championship. Let's just all admit it. Anything short of a national title will be a major disappointment. Kind of harsh, but the season will be a failure without that title. We have climbed every mountain, we've been there before. A national title is all this season is about right now for KU. It is our chosen, and fortunate path in life. It seems unfair to define success that way, but look at the alternative? We could define success by an NCAA berth. Or winning a game in the tourney.
I have enjoyed the ride before. In 2011-12, I diverted from my normal (NCAA title or bust) approach, and I enjoyed the ride. That was a team that really exceeded expectations, and made enjoying the ride much easier. Kind of paralleled 1990-91.
This team? Are you kidding me? The Duke win cemented what will define this team -- an NCAA title. Not a final four trip, or a title game, but an NCAA title.
We can enjoy the ride -- but only so much. We need that happy ending.
global .. I seriously try over there to talk hoops a bit.
What's comical now is there are so many folks with face screen names. There's some dude named "Benz Junque", another "Eric TheCapn". The whole purpose of their policy is really gone. And it's not that "civil".
Now we need to get Oak over here. I just posted again to see if he'd bite.
I'd vote clowns. ISU is a nice basketball rival because the match-up has an edge to it after last season. They have gone a full season with the belief that we got two lucky wins. Maybe so. But that sort of thing just makes their fall harder this season.
Some media folks on twitter were quick to defend Ejim saying he was a good kid and a class act. Fraschilla responded when someone said he flipped off the crowd with "Good for him, tough place."
I really don't care about any of that. We just need to win at their place.
Sorry if someone mentioned this .. I understand that you can get the ESPN 3 stream in the KC area if you have ATT Uverse by downloading Google chrome, and getting an "extension." I apologize, I'm not a computer dude. But that extension will allow you to get the signal as it makes it appear that your IP address is out of this area. You then connect your laptop to your TV with an HDMI cable. Just what I heard ....
Good stuff on this page today, and good to see @Jesse_Newell here.
A couple things that really stood out to me -
Black is just woefully ineffective right now. But this is still a small sample size. Even though we had some lower expectations based on the Memphis stats, this is below that baseline. So perhaps he'll step it up.
Though I do subscribe to the "temper the expectations" thought process as kD noted, it's really, really hard regarding Embiid. As I've posted before, he is the key to our assent this season. He seems like the guy that could transform us into a great team.
I'm not negative on Frankamp. It's just hard for me to see him fitting as part of the rotation now. The way I see this is that Self just doesn't know what he wants to do. Look at the boxscore -- Only 5 guys played 20 minutes or more. Mason, 13, Traylor 10, Black 9, White 8, Frankamp 10. Rotation minutes, in my mind, are appx. 13 per game. We know Mason is in the rotation, and Black starts. That's 7. While it seems that Self is expanding, he's really contracting. The comment about playing Frankamp because Green was out may be right on there, and Self complimented CF. But where is this rotation going as we move forward? White only played 8 minutes against Iona. It seems like he's being shut out of this, too. Again, this was Iona and we have 6 guys with rotation level minutes? Heading into the game, my hunch was that Greene was moving to the front of the pack in the White/Frankamp/Greene battle, but then he didn't play for the vague reasons noted. The best explanation is that Self is just trying to figure out what he wants to do, and isn't sure yet.
But I come from the perspective that I want pay per view. At least then, I could get the game at home. I have ATT. Comcast, as was mentioned, is the worst provider. That's the option I have. It's an arm twist to shift providers. Not going to happen. I'll pay the local bar/grill 5 times the money in food, etc., to watch the game vs. having my arm twisted to change cable providers.
I'd love a PPV system for these 6 games. I understand the need for revenue. I'd at least like that option. But I sure as heck am not buying Comcast cable because of this. Actually, the arm twist tactic makes me far less likely to consider switching back; and I'll actively discourage folks from using Comcast, for whatever that's worth.
@drgnslayr: On Lucas, I guess my logic on why a transfer would at least make sense, if he were considering it, is that the year he would "burn" sitting out -- Dec/2013 to Dec/2014 -- he'd be sitting the bench anyway here. Burning a year, so to speak. The key would be his possibilities to play here vs. another school starting the second half of next season. Will he get real playing time here? That's the big question. And yes, the play 4 seasons in 5 seasons is at the heart of this. Tough decisions for kids when playing time is lacking.
@brooksmd: Tough to tell on Lucas. From what I've seen, I just see a guy who would be adequate right now. Pretty slow, doesn't run the floor well (lumbering, maybe), ok shot, certainly not an athletic or "motor" guy. But still just a redshirt freshman. At the Oct. 19 scrimmage, nothing stood out to me as being a strength. It's just very hard to tell with such a small sample size. That said, I've pretty much seen him as a guy that would contribute his junior and senior seasons. Perhaps rotation his junior season, and possible starter as a senior. Purely a developmental guy. But at the least, he's emergency depth. It would be pretty cool to see him work hard and develop into a player. Lucas and his family may be looking long term -- that being here, developing, is the best chance at a career. As opposed to instant playing time at, say, UTEP or Fresno St., or wherever. But the "instant" part of that equation gets removed each season that goes by. Lucas has a lot of time left.
@JayHawkFanToo - right, Withey had to establish one year in residency to play at KU, which was from Dec/2008 - Dec/2009. He just hadn't redshirted, so he was fine under the play 4 season in 5 seasons rule. He is in the exact same position as if CF decided to transfer.
@dylans - Yes, he would have to sit one full year due to the year in residency rule. If you've used your redshirt season, then it becomes more impractical to transfer the further along that you are (if you're a redshirt junior, for example, you really couldn't leave after that season as you'd be sitting your 5th and final season -- you would have redshirted one of those 5). When you transfer, you have to sit a year unless you get a waiver (usually injury or coach related, or "circumstances" like Dixon from MU to Memphis).
@jessej421: For example, with Lucas, he has already redshirted. He's technically a freshman. If he happened to transfer at semester, he'd be out until December/2014. So his freshman year of eligibility would be gone (this season), he'd lose the first part of his sophomore season, and he'd start off in December/2014 with eligibility the remainder of that season, plus two more seasons. Mickelson is a season ahead, and thus would have the remainder of that season, plus only one more. Same with Traylor. It's what @JayHawkFanToo was referring to .. a kid sits and burns a year of eligibilty if he's already redshirted.
I believe it's the one year in residency rule that prevails here. That's where you've heard about waivers, etc. The one year in residency rule is different from a redshirt, but it burns a year under the "play 4 seasons in 5 seasons" rule @jessej421 was referring to. A good example is Traylor and Mickelson. Traylor has used his excess season as a redshirt, and Mickelson based on the one year in residency rule. So a kid would not have a redshirt year after he transfers and sits under the one year in residency rule, but for an injury exception.
Once you play in a season, it counts toward your eligibilty. So assume a player hasn't redshirted, like Frankamp. He has now played. He has burned one year of eligibility. Redshirting works for a school year, not the calendar year. Frankamp would be sophomore if he played at anytime in the 2014-15 season -- meaning if he transferred at semester, he would be a sophomore for the second semester of next season. He could transfer at semester, and redshirt next season, and be a sophomore for 2015-16. He could also transfer at the end of the season, sit 2014-15 due to the one year in residency rule (which is essentially a redshirt year, but not technically), and be eligible as a sophomore 2015-16.
Again all eligibility has to fit within the "play 4 seasons in 5 seasons" parameter.
It is harsh .. but with Lucas, for example, how will he play anyway in the year he would sit out through December/2014? He might, but regardless, I do hope he stays.
JaQuan Lyle: Could coach Self have guaranteed Cliff Alexander that JaQuan Lyle would have a scholarship? Not to be a conspiracy theorist here, but if you listen to Alexander, he seems pretty confident that Lyle is coming to KU. Lyle was on twitter after his decommitment from Louisville, posting stuff about KU and being a Jayhawk. @Statmachine posted this link (1:50 and 4:00 minute marks). Alexander says that he talked to Lyle “last night” and that Lyle was going to be a Jayhawk:
Rivals doesn't even have KU recruiting Lyle; ESPN still erroneously lists that Lyle visited Oct. 4. Would be nice to get some better info. Last I saw, he had visited West Virginia a week or so ago. He’s ranked #39 by ESPN, and #22 by Rivals. We could assume he’s approximately the #30 guy.
I think Lyle would be a solid signing based on one important assumption: That Lyle doesn't expect immediate playing time. If he does come to KU, there is no way that he can expect to play immediately. When Lyle decommitted from Louisville, he said that immediate playing time was a factor there, even though Pitino told him that Chris Jones would likely turn pro. Hard to believe that he would have such a change in priorities. But if he comes here, that tune has to have changed. If not, he's delusional.
With our stable of perimeter players, even losing Selden and Wiggins, how would Lyle get on the court? He is not an ultra-talent like Tyus Jones. Is a freshman Lyle better than sophomores-to-be Greene or Mason, or junior-to-be White? Likely not better than Tharpe, who will be a senior, and certainly not ahead freshman Oubre, right? Where does he play? I left out Frankamp. I know. If we add a top perimeter player, a redshirt season in 2014-15 might seem certain for CF, as @konkeyDong projected.
If Lyle can stomach a season on the bench, he could be a major contributor pretty quickly. Lyle doesn’t project to be near an OAD, and really, he’s likely at least a 3-4 year player. When Lyle is a sophomore, Tharpe will be gone and maybe Oubre. Then his junior season White will be gone and Greene likely will have left. Certainly Oubre will be gone by then. Only Mason and Frankamp would remain. At 6’4”, Lyle could easily play off the ball and not have match-up issues. He could be in the rotation his sophomore season, and a starter his junior and senior seasons.
I guess I’m just curious as to what’s going on. No real Lyle chatter until Alexander mentioned it. Seemed like a dead subject. It is also pretty odd that Alexander said on Friday that he wouldn't sign his LOI until January (on the video link above), and then he signed Saturday morning. Alexander is just a kid and could just be running off at the mouth. Regardless, it will be interesting to monitor.
Transfer Risks: Self has now covered the two scholarships that, publicly, are available. Black is gone, and Wiggins said that he will be a one and done. Any further commitments or signings could lead to the dreaded “overrecruiting.” Technically, Self has overrecruited now. Wiggins could come back. But anyone else signing or committing would assume Selden or Embiid, or both, are headed out the door. We’re still in the mix on Myles Turner and Rashad Vaughn, along with the Lyle rumors.
The possibility of yet another player or two coming in means that the semester transfer watch is on. Lucas is on the bench, Ellis will be back, Alexander coming in, Traylor ahead of him, Mickelson as competition, and Self is still pursuing Turner. Further, Self is going hard after play immediately, OAD talent -- he's in on 4 top 10 post players in 2015.
This all throws the “wait your turn” thing out of whack. That has to have been a big lure for Lucas. If Lucas transferred, he would be eligible the first day after classes next December, with 2 ½ seasons remaining if he transferred. Before you say that he already redshirted, how much real, non-blowout PT will Lucas get for KU between now and when he’d be eligible to play in December, 2014? Probably as much as he’s gotten thus far this season. Lucas seems like a well-grounded kid with excellent parents, but no one knows what’s in his head. Looking at it from the outside, it looks like a risk.
Same situation applies to Mickelson, but he is a season ahead of Lucas. He’s sitting this season no matter what. If he left at semester, he’d only lose the first semester next season and have 1 ½ left. That seems like it’s lower on the risk chart than Lucas, though, since he just came in last spring and had a better lay of the land than Lucas did when he signed.
On the flip side of that, 2015-16 might be Lucas' and Mickelson's big opening. We'll likely lose both Alexander and Ellis. Chances of landing two high talent post players, good enough to start, is pretty slim. They would both be gambling that Self doesn't hit it big. Playing a big role that season would fit nicely into Lucas' developmental status. I hope that he hangs around, and that his hard work pays off.
On the perimeter, Greene, White, and Frankamp are competing to even get on the court now. The Duke game tipped Self’s hand on his approach to the rotation – it hasn’t changed in tight games. Those three will have the same playing time battle next season. If Oubre is our only perimeter recruit, and Frankamp is ok with redshirting if he doesn’t break into the rotation, our transfer risk there goes way down. But add another top player to the equation, the transfer possibility could rear its ugly head in December (and certainly next spring). The minutes distribution on the perimeter heading into the Christmas break will be something to keep an eye on.
Our roster is crowded with talent and guys that deserve to play. But as Clint Eastwood said in Unforgiven, "deserves got nothin' to do with it." It's not just about talent, or "deserving" it -- it's about the guy in front of you. Roadblocks. With all this talent, and guys that want and deserve to play, it’s just hard to imagine something won’t happen on the transfer front, just as it has in the past.
@Blown - it is worth a lot. I would be very, very curious about someone who would want Miller to come to KU ...
@wissoxfan83 - To me, we're just one title off. Whether it's 1991, 1997, 2002, 2003, or 2012. Just one.
One that doesn't get talked about a lot is that 2002 team. Collison and Gooden in the post. The Maryland game was the real title game -- we would have smoked Indiana, too, in the championship.
@bskeet - Yes, that is a homer talking. But the two titles in five years works for me. Roy did it at NC, Self can do it here.
What we really need to be concerned about if Self leaves is our AD, Sheahon Zenger -- we need to hope that he doesn't think he's the smartest guy in the room. Meaning, we don't need him to reach for "maybe", or a "hunch", or something like that. We need the real deal.
That said, Bob Frederick reached a little .. and that worked out.
I think Blown has an excellent list there, minus Sean Miller. Not my cup of tea. Donovan is a perfect #1 choice. I'd then go to Stevens #2.
Also need to avoid the flavor of the day -- the small school guy that wins a couple tourney games. You know, Toledo's up and coming coach, or whatever. Let him take his next step at Iowa.
If I had to bet, I say that it will be Turgeon. He's the only KU guy coaching at a big time school. Not in my top 5.
But I have always felt that Stevens would really excel here. @JayHawkFanToo pointed out that a Celtics' flameout might be perfect timing.
Best case scenario: We get Okafer and Alexander, but not Jones.
Next best case scenario: We get Okafer or Alexander.
Next best case scenario: We get none today, but get Turner in the spring.
Next best case scenario: We get all three today.
*As you can note there, I don't want Jones anywhere near the terrific perimeter group we already have. Priority is that I'd rather have at least one big guy signed right now and not wait until the spring for Turner. Also, ESPN predicts we get none today, and Turner goes to Texas. But predicts that we get Rashad Vaughn in the spring. Trying to figure out how that fits, as well.
