@kjayhawks said in NCAA Tournament: Should it happen?:
If you are sick or elderly, I’d advise not to go.
Your post reflects a common if understandable misperception. The problem for large events isn't primarily the risk to attendees. It is that perfectly healthy people get infected at a high rate, then infect others, some of whom are high risk.
Consider, the New Rochelle, NY, area has been locked down Italy-style due to an outbreak that has been traced to a single⁸ 50 year old lawyer. First his entire family -- son, wife, daughter -- then the friend who drove him to the hospital, then other friends, colleagues, and synagogue acquaintances all ended up positive in less than a week. 108 cases in the county! And they don't even know where he got it.
So, assume just 5 people who unknowingly have been exposed go to an arena with 20,000 people--and they go to both sessions on a weekend. With the fast spread rate of this thing, assuming each sick person infects only 2, how many could be infected within a week? And how many down the line might visit a nursing home or live with cancer patients or, travelling to or from, just touch things at the store or the gas pump after coughing into their hands?
Unfortunately, there is a reason why eliminating large gatherings is virtually always a vital step in stopping epidemics--because it works. It slows down transmission so that resources can be marshalled and so the disease can be studied and more effective treatments can be developed for the symptoms, and eventually, hopefully, a vaccine.
Bottom line, many perfectly healthy people can acquire the virus and end up killing a large number of others. Will the NCAA want to deal with the PR of dozens, perhaps hundreds or even thousands, of cases ultimately tracked to the tourney?
