@Wifflehead Welcome friend.
Kcmatt7
11050 posts
And I wouldn't bank on McBride for any more than 10 mpg. He may have to play more, and if that is the case I don't think it's a good sign.
Hampton would be a hell of a consolation prize if we do miss on Tucker. I know we hate OADs here, but Hampton plays with a Russel Westbrook type intensity. He might not be much of a shooter, but him and Dot would be fast break machines.
@BeddieKU23 If Bryce Brown did at KU what he did at Auburn I think he gets drafted. That's all I'm saying. 141 threes is absurd. And that is something that I'd harp on.
I definitely think Bill sells him a starting spot. Or at least phrases it, that if he can't beat out either of those two, he isn't an NBA player anyways.
BShark said:
Kcmatt7 said:
He would be a very nice depth add. He does have the feel of a guy who may struggle to ever see meaningful minutes though. Unless he embraces becoming a stretch 4
From what I've seen, he's definitely a college 4.
Agreed
He would be a very nice depth add. He does have the feel of a guy who may struggle to ever see meaningful minutes though. Unless he embraces becoming a stretch 4
Our sales pitch is obvious. If you put up the same/similar numbers here, you’re a 1st round pick.
I don’t know anyone else can say that. Brown isn’t even going to get drafted out of Auburn after one hell of a career.
He may fit their system perfectly, but that system hasn’t produced pros.
Still have to fine another big like no matter what
Alright, Silvio's turn.
@BShark They still have to be one of the most talented teams in the tournament overall. Even if Perry and Mario are playing the 3
Honestly, would be a salty bunch.
Top right looks like Mario Little. Bottom Right looks like T-Rob. Bottom left looks like Tyshawn. My guess for Top left is Withey.
BeddieKU23 said:
Kcmatt7 said:
BeddieKU23 said:
justanotherfan said:
BeddieKU23 said:
In Self's perfect world Garrett plays 40 minutes.
He's gonna play 30 no matter who's on the roster
And that would be a mistake unless he fixes his jump shot this summer.
I agree. I don't think its fixable either so where does that leave us? Fatally flawed already?
@BShark Did you hack Beddie's account or something?
I'm just on this kick of wanting to see shooters on the floor as much as possible. We have none currently. What do we do with guys such as Marcus
You pray we land Tucker and Hampton and he's on the bench a lot.
BeddieKU23 said:
justanotherfan said:
BeddieKU23 said:
In Self's perfect world Garrett plays 40 minutes.
He's gonna play 30 no matter who's on the roster
And that would be a mistake unless he fixes his jump shot this summer.
I agree. I don't think its fixable either so where does that leave us? Fatally flawed already?
@BShark Did you hack Beddie's account or something?
I guess I'm crazy, but I think he has way more to gain by coming back than leaving. At this moment, he wouldn't make a ton overseas. He could legitimately get drafted though if he can make it through next season healthy.
@dylans Yea he ended up at the right place. I think the thought when we offered was he would grow a bit too. His brother is a few inches taller than he is. Didn't happen...
I would think Self presses him for a commitment one way or the other.
But still no word? Or is the rumor on the street he's going overseas?
Bill did say 10 days clears a lot of things up...
Boy, pipe dream thoughts of landing Hampton and bringing Ochai and Garrett off of the bench are starting...
BigBad said:
Kcmatt7 said:
It is going to happen regardless. And you're going to end up with unbalanced classes, especially with the way the transfer market has changed. So, you have a team with Frank, DG, Svi, Vick and LL. A damn good team. You would rather have some no name player than JJ come in and help that team. Where is that team without JJ? A 4 or 5 seed and another early tournament flame out.
Frank DESERVED JJ and at least a shot at winning. We didn't land anything else before JJ either. And we tried. JJ didn't hurt a thing. Without him, I'm afraid that team struggles to even make the tournament. He was that good.
IMO JJ was the perfect OAD. Blended perfectly with the guys we had, played hard, never acted like a ME guy.
Self said it best. He actually unpacked his bags.
Langford back. Winston back. Yea, they'll be good.
@HighEliteMajor Thanks for the reply. I do think we could avoid Presumed OADs, but I have my doubts about the results. I'll explain more below.
Lets start with a scenario where you have talent, but not quite enough to win a NC without adding an immediate impact player capable of helping your team.
Let me even say we were following your plan, only slightly altered. Let's say we build a team from 25-75 ranked recruits, successfully. Likely, because of our success, one or more guys are going to develop too quickly get poached by the NBA. Now, I'd like us to think of the 08 team, specifically. Wright and Rush were poached. If not for Rush's knee injury, I think we all agree the 08 team likely doesn't do what they did. For the sake of the scenario, let's pretend Rush's knee injury doesn't happen and he's gone as well. We have to replace him.
In one corner, stands Option A: a 6'5 175lb noodle of a freshman, ranked 55th in the class. He would love to come to KU. But he is not ready to contribute from day one. Walk-ons would eat him alive at this point. By conference season, he's worth 8-10 MPG. (Rodrick Stewart is now getting 20 MPG. Yikes)
In another corner, stands option B: A 6'6 215 lb wing and Top 5 pick in the NBA draft would also like to come to KU. He is better than your current SF on the depth chart (Rodrick Steward) but he won't give you 4 years like option A would. He increases your chances of a NC from 200/1 to 8/1.
Isn't it a disservice to Sasha, Darnell, RR and Mario to take the lesser guy? Did they not earn their shot at a NC? Or do they not deserve one for not winning one while they had Wright and Rush?
I think you owe them the best chance you can give them to try for a NC if you have the rest of the pieces in place.
And before you fully commit to "OADs don't give anyone anything," let's also look at those numbers. I think KU OADs to date might have been what has turned you sour on them.
This is just going off of getting to the FF.
- 2019 - Nadda. Nobody.
- 2018 - Omari Spellman. Maybe he wasn't PRESUMED OAD. But he was one. He was ranked 20th and within the range of being one. He played damn good ball. He went. He was a OAD.
- 2017 - Zach Collins. Same as above basically. Except ranked 28th.
- 2016 - Malachi Richardson - Syracuse. Ranked 28th. So similar to the guys above
- 2015 - Okafor, Winston, Jones, Kat, Booker and Lyles.
- 2014 - Randle and Young
- 2013 - None. Nadda.
- 2012- Davis, Kidd-Gilchrest, Teague
- 2011 - Knight
- 2010 - None. Nadda.
- 2009 - None. Nadda.
- 2008 - Love, Rose
- 2007 - Oden, Cook and Conley.
- 2006 - Tyrus Thomas
10 FFs out of the 14 since the rule was put in place have had OAD freshman. Not all presumed, I'll concede that. Still, finding an impact Freshman is absolutely key. That or convincing guys to stay. Even if I narrowed it down to Presumed though, 7 of the last 14 FFs had Presumed OADs play in them. That's a pretty good percent.
And, I'll even concede that I think Self's system may not lend itself to OADs like Cal or K or even Roy tbh. They commit to it. They change their system around their talent. Self tries to fit his talent in his system. The JJ year, Self was literally forced to adapt to his team because of having 4 guards and no post presence. And I think that is why we saw JJ thrive.
But, this is the part that scares me. I do think we could probably avoid the Top 10 and be ok. Probably. But let's return to our scenario. Ideally we want a guy ranked high enough he can come in and help, but not so high he leaves. So we laser in on guys ranked 20-40. And this is where the problems with avoiding OADs start. Out of those 20 guys we laser in on, only 10 may be willing to travel to play. Of that 10, only 4 are probably not Nike leans. Of those 4, 2-3 may not be a position of need. So you go from a pool of 20 guys down to literally one or two recruits that make or breaks your season. So, if you miss, you miss BIG.
Instead, we currently cast a net from 1-40. 20 of those guys are staying home. 6 are Adidas guys. And you have 3 or 4 chances at landing that impact player your roster needs to be NC caliber the next season. Throw in the tidbit that Adidas is willing to fork out bigger bucks for anyone ranked Top 15 because they want to sign them to a deal after this year, and it becomes much easier to recruit/sway some of these "presumed OADs".
Or you decide to commit to the rebuild, scrap it, and go for a guy ranked 41-100 instead. I'm sure Sasha, Darnell and RR will get over it.
That's what makes recruiting so damn tough though.
Feel free to respond, as I don't think this can really go negative (at this point). It's a genuinely interesting conversation and has made me pull data I was too lazy to pull at other times. As nice as you guys make me feel about my piece, this is a place for discussion.
UVA also has the 57th recruit (out of NC), and the 59th guy, from Washington D.C. So two very solid guys from their backyard and a project. I expect Bennett to start recruiting better.
You already see Jay Wright having to take "Presumed OADs" now because of holes created by guys leaving he didn't expect. It's the nature of the beast. Success breeds success, but also higher expectations. Both for yourself and from fans...
We are going to be the only team that suffers from this some way some how
HighEliteMajor said:
@Kcmatt7 I think the reference to recruiting area is clearly relevant. But that's no different than if we are recruiting top guys, or 100+. We have a proximity issue.
This is true. But, it is also relevant for consistently building a team based around 4 year guys. Of the top 100, 50 guys ended up at a local/regional school. (Basically I counted anything less than a 5 hour drive). 28 of those ranked 100-150 went close to home.
That essentially eliminates half of the pool. If I were to limit it a bit further, like anything NE and stayed NE. Or SE and stayed SE, that number gets significantly smaller. 95/150 players stayed regionally based. So, really, we are down to 50-60 players willing to travel away from home each year.
When you look west and south, though, kids are having to fly to most preferred destinations.
But not for one minute should any of us think that any excuse is relevant for KU. We're a top 5 program. So the excuses are irrelevant. I find the excuses laughable actually. I understand the factual nature of the data, I just find it's applicability to top 5 program, a blue blood like KU, pretty much irrelevant.
So if any argument is irrelevant, what is the point of even having this discussion. You won't even open your mind up a little bit. Here is the thing, it is all relevant. It is. All of it.
If Kansas focused on the non-OAD through - 80ish, made the commitment to avoid the presumed OAD, that would have to be attractive to a recruit in that range or higher. Logical. Why? Just look at Andrew White as an example. If I'm recruiting against KU, I say look at Andrew White. Self brings him in, then snags Wiggins and White is marginalized. White's college career was then chaos. He got run out of Kansas. Self won't commit to you.
You are remembering it wrong. AWIII was ran out of here by B-Green. Who Self picked over him. Wiggins was not the problem Green played, and would have played, over him.
He chases the OAD. So you could be junior and he'll bring in a top guy just when you need to the PT the most to make it to the NBA. Heck, KU had Frank Mason and Devonte Graham, and Bill Self was working hard to get De'Aaron Fox, and was a finalist until the end. Would he have displaced Mason? How would that have impacted Mason's NBA prospects?
This is a complete hypothetical. Who knows how it turns out for Frank. And, again, you're remembering it wrong. Fox was an early commit nobody thought was coming here. Go look at the CB picks. Most picks were coming well before he ever even took a visit.
Or, we can continue to do what Self has done.
I'll sacrifice making the tourney every so often for more pronounced spikes.
I very much doubt this. I don't think you would be ok with this. Enduring years of misery, hoping we can put it all together for one year. And, what if we don't? What if we finally get a group of 7 solid upperclassmen and we shit the bed? We are supposed to be ok with waiting another 4,5 6 years before we put it all together again and have a chance?
And those spikes can be from talent that grows, develops, and stays longer.
It sounds like what you want is to be like Indiana. Because that is what KU would become if we went with your strategy. We are in a talent desert. Chicago and St. Louis are our only regional places producing talent. And there is plenty of competition in those areas between KU and MSU and the dozen other schools that surround those two cities.
You look at this with Crimson and Blue goggles and basically say, there is no reason KU should be able to offer a kid ranked 80, and him jump on the opportunity. That is simply not true. Over half of the players available each given season wouldn't jump at it.
Once you start playing the ShoeCo games too, that number goes from half, to even less. Kai Jones is a perfect example. A Brewster kid that loved KU. We have it on good authority, KU would have been HIS choice. But Nike and Texas took care of him. And guess where he went? KU would have taken him in a heartbeat. KU Offered him. He did not jump at that opportunity. He took the money.
You also think that "recruiting over" only happens with OAD players. That's not true either. BG was a better player than AWIII. He was. And AWIII would have left regardless because he was never going to start at KU. And he knew that.
Low ranked Frank Mason kicked Frankamps ass back to Wichita. Frank and Devonte forced out Nadiir too.
It is going to happen regardless. And you're going to end up with unbalanced classes, especially with the way the transfer market has changed. So, you have a team with Frank, DG, Svi, Vick and LL. A damn good team. You would rather have some no name player than JJ come in and help that team. Where is that team without JJ? A 4 or 5 seed and another early tournament flame out.
Frank DESERVED JJ and at least a shot at winning. We didn't land anything else before JJ either. And we tried. JJ didn't hurt a thing. Without him, I'm afraid that team struggles to even make the tournament. He was that good.
Wiggins didn't hurt a thing. He was an April commit with nobody else coming in. One year and done. And without him we are probably not a tournament team. Again, White left after that season knowing that he was never going to be #1 in the pecking order. He was already behind BG. There was no impact from it. And that team lost double digits with him, they weren't losing less games without him. Hell, they ended up a 2 seed because of him, really.
Maybe Xavier messed things up for the Sherron SR. year. It's possible. That team also went 33-3 so I think it's hard to say that. Xavier shot .418 from 3 and was efficient all around. 1.5 steals per game is pretty damn good... What happens to that team without a wing who can score it and shoot it that well? Sherron and Cole were already doing about as much as they could.
We saw what happens when you recruit guys that are 100+. You get LLs and Jamari's. I don't want Landen's and Jamari's. I want us to try to field the best damn team we can year in and year out. Period. Especially because, mathematically speaking, we have to essentially offer every Top 100 player that is an Adidas kid and then see which ones are even open to leaving home and we aren't already deep at that position.
You also ignore the fact that players want to play and they want to play right away. Nobody likes sitting the bench. What guarantee could we give a player? If you come sit here for two years, you'll get to play? But only if a guy we bring in next season doesn't progress faster than you. Or are you suggesting that Bill purposely sit better players? You see, this is the problem with your strategy. There is no guarantee you ever see the court at the University of Kansas. No matter who you are. No matter what strategy we take. We are KU. We get talent. We will play the best talent for our system. That may or may not be you. If you don't like that someone jumped you, you transfer. All of a sudden, the guy who jumped you went pro. We now have a giant hole. But we have 4 other positions locked down. How do we fill this hole? We have a 80+ ranked guy coming in, but he isn't ready to play at this level yet...
You make it sound so, so much easier than it is. These aren't excuses. These are the cold hard facts. And you can ignore them and continue to decry Self for chasing talent, but this is the realistic look at recruiting from the University of Kansas in 2019.
BShark said:
New offer https://247sports.com/Player/Garnett-Burke-46083321/ ↗
Looks like he's highly sought after.
I didn't want to really add this part in, but I do think it's relevant. It is much easier to hide impermissible benefits to local kids and their parents. Having talent in your backyard, with the local fanbase everywhere, makes it very easy to do things like get them a big time promotion. A deal on a car. A deal on a house. Yada yada yada.
When you move someone's mom in from Philly, it's a whole hell of a lot more noticeable.
@BShark They have Mitch Lightfoots all over the state begging to walk-on for them.
@HighEliteMajor Oh I'm sure. My thought is that it doesn't hurt Silvio in any way to fight this until he can't anymore. And it would probably cost the NCAA a hell of a lot in litigation fees if this ever did go to trial in any way shape or form. Especially if Silvio rushed it and his only caveat was eligibility for this year and not even monetary. I would think that this is the type of thing the NCAA would like to avoid.
@HighEliteMajor Roy is probably the best about it.
But, and this is key, he gets to recruit out of the state of North Carolina (and the surrounding states).
- Theo Pinson, from NC.
- Brice Johnson, from SC.
- Isaiah Hicks, from NC.
- Kennedy Meeks, from NC.
- Coby White, from NC.
- Leaky Black, from NC.
- Jalek Felton, from SC.
- Brandon Huffman, from NC.
- Luke Maye, from NC.
- Kenny Williams, from VA.
- Nate Britt, from D.C.
- James Michael McAdoo, from VA.
- PJ Hairston, from VA.
- Reggie Bullock, from NC.
- Kendall Marshall, from VA.
- Ed Davis, VA. Ty Lawson, Southern MD.
- Marcus Ginyard, from VA.
- Will Graves, from NC
- Reyshawn Terry, from NC.
That is a lot of talent coming from in his back yard. Often times, he's getting the best player in NC who is a cornerstone piece to build around and a top 25 guy. Then he takes an easy flight to Florida to recruit. And maybe a couple more to small time guys that him and staff hit it off with on the AAU circuit.
The best player in KS HS history, Semi Ojeleye, didn't even give KU a whiff. Went to Duke.
Perhaps it is Bill's fault for not prioritizing local talent and not turning over every rock. It's possible that we could have had Buddy Hield. Ron Baker and Willy Cauley-Stein. Even add in KCMO, Landry Shamet and Shaqille Harrison and Alec Burks.
Still, there is not enough local talent to fill years and year of rosters like Roy has had.
128 players who played HS ball in NC have gone on to the NBA. Missouri and Kansas Combined have only put in 96 combined. Viginia has 125 themselves. Washington D.C. has put 45 in. There is a major influx of basketball talent in that vicinity, and they're the top brand. It's an easy sell. Come play at a top school, with top facilities, and be able to go to almost every game live. UVA, Wake, Duke, NC State, Clemson and VT are all right there too. So at least half of the road games are driveable. Plus the conference tournament is typically in NC. And, an NCAA tournament site is typically very close.
So, not only do we not have talent in our backyard, Roy even has something to sell the talent that is there. He has the East Coast platform. They are a Nike darling. They are within driving distance or at home of a ton of their games. They have top notch facilities. They have the perfect pitch, no?
We, on the other hand, are not only having to get kids to come here from far away, we are competing against the other Blue Bloods and their local schools. We have to convince them that traveling to Lawrence, KS is the best decision for them. Away from their families. Away from their friends. Away form the beach. Away from warmer weather. Away from everything else.
It makes it much harder, imo. A very different animal.
Well KT was our bag man. He was the one who "landed" all of the OAD guys... So maybe his role is starting to get limited to an extent due to current circumstances. But you don't fire your bag man. KT was probably 5 words away from an indictment. Self isn't cutting ties.
Norm, I really don't know enough about.
Snacks, in my opinion, is likely to land a HC job in the next 3-4 years.
Bruce Weber is perfect for KSU.
JAYHAWKFAN214 said:
CAN WE KEEP THE SUBJECT ON KU RECRUITING ANDNOTHING ELSE
Yes, but only if you promise to quit posting in all caps
@HighEliteMajor NCAA has precedent for suspensions. I'd say this was by far longer than any for the same crime. At least lately. DeSousa would have a case. He may not win, but he'd have a case.
It doesn't matter whether or not he knew his guardian took cash. All that matters is the NCAA punished him unfairly in comparison to others for similarly breaking the rules..
@HighEliteMajor We'll see.
@HighEliteMajor I just think you don't have matching expectations for the programs success and how you would like us to recruit.
You simply can't, in todays game, recruit that way and expect to be a top 10 team every year competing for National Championships. Literally nobody has been able to do that as a "system" team. If you take out the FBI thing that is disproportionately hurting us compared to say UK or Duke, KU has another 1 seed this year.
Nova learned this year, you have to have immediate talent coming in. Guys that weren't expected to leave, left after the NC and they weren't even close to the same team this year. They got caught with their pants down. If Ignas leaves, Michigan could really struggle next year.
Where does this program exist that has proven your theory that if you commit to mid-tier talent that you can consistently win year in and year out?
@BShark Right. Like some guys want to stay close to home. Or don't want to deal with the weather here. And Bill Self probably isn't crazy charming for everyone. There are so many variables that people don't realize.
I did the breakout awhile ago, but it is basically twice as easy for a program like KU to go recruit the top 25 than it is to recruit 25+.
I'd really be interested in the Civil Case that comes from this if they don't at least fix this.
BShark said:
BeddieKU23 said:
Ugh Rivals guys all pick Chris Harris Jr to Oklahoma St.. Exactly the type of kid that goes for 30 and makes 7 3's every time he plays KU. Flabbergasted why we didn't show interest
There would be a freak out as KU signed another sub 100 recruit but yeah he will be a good one in time.
This is what cracks me up.
Fans want us to land 3 guys a year from the range 45-60 lol. Anything else is a terrible class one way or the other.
“That’s if everybody leaves,” Self clarified. “But everybody’s not going to leave. But, yeah; I’d say if we need to sign seven this spring, that wouldn’t be the ideal situation.” - Self
http://www2.kusports.com/weblogs/tale-tait/2019/apr/17/kansas-coach-bill-self-far-from-panicked/ ↗
More evidence of Doke and De Sousa not coming back.
BeddieKU23 said:
Jemarl Baker Jr is transferring from Kentucky. Sat his freshman year with knee Injury. Didn't see a ton of action as a freshman but he did play well in the NCAA tournament. Kid can shoot it. Would be an intriguing sit-out candidate
Pass.
dylans said:
Did he charge the mound? Only way I know to stop that is to beat the pitchers butt. But ask good old chisox Robin Ventura about charging Nolan Ryan. You’ll get your keister handed to you.
I don’t mind some masculine preening. I despise the neutering of America
Hockey players have it right. Get laid out. Get pissed. Clear out. Let those two fight. It’s done.
Baseball does not. Throwing a ball at someone who is a sitting duck and 60’ away, knowing that player is unlikely to get hit, shake it off, and charge the mound before their fully armored body guard (the catcher) can get in his way. That’s some pussy shit right there. If you’re pissed he showed you up after a hitting a bomb, go fight him then.
Bat flipping should not be considering showing someone up. They just hit a 450 foot shot off of you. And you’re pissed about the bat flip?
Baseballs unwritten rules are so stupid most of the time
Woodrow said:
@Kcmatt7 I thought I saw something like 12 guys. That seems like way too many. I would think around 7-8 guys. Although they have to play in a qualifier in Wichita to even make it to the "real" tournament so maybe some guys are not available for all of the dates.
They can carry 12, but historically most have carried less so they get a bigger piece of the pie
They can't add too many guys. Otherwise the prize is getting split too much. Have to find that right balance.
I can wait 10 days.
@Woodrow thanks pal
@Woodrow is there a link to an entire article by chance?
BShark said:
It honestly can't hurt that the Hamptons saw that Grimes continued to get huge minutes despite sucking out loud. Not that I think it would be an issue for RJ and he'd get huge tick anywhere but I think it does help that they know Self would help showcase RJ. Self also did a great job showcasing Wigs and Josh.
We're due for one of these to really pay off. I think Hampton plays with a Russel Westbrook type mentality too. So I think some fans may even like him...