Louisville:
1. Virginia
2. Tennessee
3. Purdue
4. Maryland
I like that we are still in KC. I'm interested to see how Duke finishes the season. I think it's possible that they lose 2-3 more games. Which could mean someone else ends up on the Top line in KC. Which, I'd definitely prefer. I'm really hoping MSU or Michigan can push back to that 1 line in KC. I think both of those teams are much more beatable for our squad.
@approxinfinity I couldn't upload an image for some reason. Told me I didn't have the privileges.
@Kcmatt7 Correct. Bennett is a hard no for me. But that's just my opinion. Hard no on Turgeon ( @BShark ) as well.
@Woodrow So, you would not see Beard moving from a school with zero hoops history, from the western plains of Texas, in a football state, to arguably one of the top 4 jobs in the country, a true blue blood, with built in recruiting advantages, FF opportunities even in off years, at a school that lives and breathes CBB? I dare say you might revisit that thought ... or am I loopy?
I legitimately think he would rather take the UT job. I know being in the same position I would take the UT job if I were him.
@HighEliteMajor Ok, let's pretend Beard is a lock to UT for a bazillion dollars (which I would bet is actually what ends up happening, personally). Now who do you have? Still no to Bennett if Beard is off the table?
@Woodrow I wholeheartedly agree. Self, to me, is the far superior player developer if given multiple seasons. Which is why it has always been funny to me that he'd even go after the players he goes after.
@Woodrow Ok, we'll see. He is not that far from washing out. His PER is ranked 300th out of 388 players who have played in 20 or more games so far this season. He is 226th out of 266 players who have played 750 or more minutes this season. He is 250th out of those same 266 players in True Shooting Percentage. He is a 3 and D wing with no 3. I very much see him ending up overseas without improvement.
But whatever, it doesn't matter. He was the 4th pick in the draft and he is unlikely to get meaningful minutes anywhere after his stint with the Suns. And even if I count him as a "hit," it's semantics at this point. It barely changes the list. All I was trying to do was put this out there visually. We can nitpick my list all we want, but Bill has not had the success that the other two have had with guys who had OAD potential coming into college. It is the perception, even if the recruits we have landed aren't the same caliber as some of these others for Duke or UK.
All I'm trying to say, I can see why a recruit and their family would pick UK or Duke over KU if their child has a shot at being a OAD player.
@Woodrow Josh is a bust because he's definitely not getting a 2nd contract. Kidd Gilchrist will have made $60M in 7 seasons by the time he washes out. IF he washes out. MKG is better from advanced stats metrics as well. Josh will be lucky to ever have a PER as good as MKG's worst.
Sure, Oubre was successful because of Self. I can concede that point and still think my point is correct. The reason I don't attribute it to Self is because Self barely played him to start the season and he struggled mightily his first two years in the league.
@BShark I think Wade might not be on the list for a few years.... Just look at his 2019 class. If Bill makes it 3 more years though, I think Wade is a candidate again. You just have to see what happens with him once the dust settles.
I do agree with basically doing whatever it takes to hire one of those 3 though. However, if you couldn't:
I'd even say Oubre was a hit, but I don't believe Self had anything to do with it. Seemed more like he botched that situation than is the reason Oubre has had a decent career.
@Crimsonorblue22 It doesn't matter what Grimes would have done with the other two. It only matters what he has done under Self and the stigma that comes with it. Along with Cliff, Diallo, Selby, Henry and really just most of the OADs we've had. It is just the current perception, and it's hard to argue with.
Yeah, fair or not this is what the view is.
And there was an article today on the Athletic slobbering all over Calipari and how players improve massively under him. :nauseated_face:
I have not read the article, but I find that amusing. PJ Washington has been incredible this year and I would assume that is mainly what the article is about, but besides the Wall, AD, Cousins type players who has gone to UK and blown up and gotten so much better. I am sure there are a few, but what about the Harrison Twins, Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee, Trey Lyles, Weynen Gabriel, Sasha Jones, etc...
I feel like Cal gets a pass because of all of the top end talent he gets that are going to be great no matter where they go.
Maybe that is just my perception. He has had a lot more bust then people realize I guess is my point.
What is the success rate compared to Self though. Of course they both have had their busts. But Self OADs do not seem to have much staying power in the League. And had Self landed some of the guys Cal got, of course it probably changes perception. But these are the results:
Josh Jackson - Bust - Soon to be wash out
Selby - Bust - Washed out
Diallo - Bust - I find it hard to believe he ever makes it
Alexander - Bust - Washed out
Preston - Bust (Whether fair or not) - Washed out
Henry - Bust - Washed out
Wiggins - Underacheiving
Embiid - Stud
Selden - Bust - Will wash out
Bragg - Bust
Grimes - Bust
B-Mac - Bust - About to wash out
Oubre - Not a bust but not a hit
Cal
- Kat - Hit
- Cousins - Hit
- Monk - Hit
- Booker - Hit
- Wall - Hit
- Bledsoe - Hit
- Rose - Hit (Still falls under Cal)
- Fox - Hit
- SGA - Hit
- MKG - Hit
- AD - Hit
- Knight - Hit
- Knox - Seems like a hit
- Kanter - Hit
- Murray - Hit
- Randle - Hit
- Diallo - Hit
- Noel - Underachieved - Still in the league though
- Skal - Underachieved - Still in the league though
- Bam - Seems like he'll stick
Add in all the misses from transfers and what not, but that is still one hell of a track record.
K
- Ingram - Hit
- Giles - Meh. Underacheive but still in the league
- Kyrie - Hit
- Bagley - Hit
- Tyus - Hit
- Parker - Hit (Knee injury derailed)
- Jahlil - Underachieve
- Rivers - Hit
- Winslow - Hit
- Trent - Miss - Will wash out
- Duval - Miss - Will wash out
- Carter JR - Hit
- Jackson - Miss - Will wash out
Still, a better track record than Self. Not near as good as Cal, but still better.
Wish I could say I'm shocked by this. But I just think you look at what Self has done with potential OADs compared to K and Cal and he's clearly in 3rd place. That makes the decision much easier.
I won't be even a little bit surprised if Hurt ends up going elsewhere. The threat of a probation probably isn't helping recruiting at all...
If I were a recruit I'd be worried about a post-season ban as well. Especially as a OAD where this may be your only chance at one.
@Crimsonorblue22 It doesn't matter what Grimes would have done with the other two. It only matters what he has done under Self and the stigma that comes with it. Along with Cliff, Diallo, Selby, Henry and really just most of the OADs we've had. It is just the current perception, and it's hard to argue with.
Wish I could say I'm shocked by this. But I just think you look at what Self has done with potential OADs compared to K and Cal and he's clearly in 3rd place. That makes the decision much easier.
A 2 day tournament for the cheese. It's money time. The next two games will determine our trajectory throughout the rest of the season. Win both games, and we're on a 5 game win streak with momentum as the team comes together. If we go 1-1, it might be too little...too late to win the conference. And with the new NET rankings system specifically designed to screw us to the wall for playing the toughest schedule in the country, we could be looking at the lowest seed we've been in a long time. And then if we go 0-2...well, that would be brutal. Let's not think that way.
Bracket Tidbits:
Looking at some early mock brackets, I don't think there's any way they are going to allow us to play in KC. They don't give 3 or 4 seeds spots that close to home normally...especially us. That said, we could really be getting a gift if they send us out West. Here's Why:
Gonzaga is simply a lock as the number 1 seed. I have them rated as the worst number 1. They're still a good team, but I think we're better.
The 2 seed in the bracket is going to have to come from somewhere other than the West, so it's going to be most likely a UNC or Sparty. With Ward and Langford being out for MSU, I would think we might have a shot. I have been less than impressed with UNC - I just don't see a great team there. Their lack of a presence inside would bode well for us. We go to the West bracket, and I could see an avenue where we cobble together some wins, and go further in the tourney than we thought. That would be a nice surprise.
Bill Self is the most profitable coach currently in the game. If you had bet on KU to beat the spread Bills entire career here, you’d have made a very pretty penny. It’s why I keep putting $200 on KU. I have the last 3 games...
Edit: this quoted the wrong post for some reason and I’m too lazy to fix it
@wissox was trying to find Ben Mac, thought he signed a 10 day w/Toronto, not there though. I want him to find something good! Hard times lately for him.🙏
@wissox it was a sting op involving 100s of Johns. There is video, Kraft isn’t going to skate.
If the video is able to be used in court... I have serious doubts about a secret camera placed in a spot where people will be stripping down to their bare bottoms becoming permissible evidence. I'd think a good lawyer argues that this is Voyeurism, which is illegal in pretty much every state and is illegal in Florida.
All that above doesn't include the coinciding increases in enrollment that stems from FF runs and NCs. I don't have enough time today to pull that correlation. But, it is basically a proven theory that teams coming off of good years in sports see major upticks in applications and enrollment. And Vice-versa. Every single additional student is worth at least $30K. Every out of state student is worth $100k+. What is their lifetime value of the extra donations?
I mean, the value of a good team REALLY starts to add up when you dive into the details.
@BigBad Well any money that was received from NCAA Tournament wins would be money that he brought to the University of Kansas through his talents... 8 tournament wins is worth quite a bit of money...
Perhaps KU would continue to sell out during a down year, but other schools see drastic increases in Attendance and donations when they are good. Alabama sold 20,000 (10% more) tickets last year just from Collin Sexton hype. Missouri sold 170k more tickets last year after landing Porter Jr.. UConn has lost nearly 90k in yearly attendance since 2015 because they've sucked. UConn just had a record donations year though after firing Ollie and hiring a new coach.... Strange how that coincided. What a coincidence. Memphis was down over 100K in yearly attendance last year. Donations have SOARED since hiring of Penny and them landing Wiseman... Another strange phenomenon. Wiggins year, they sold out season tickets AND had record donations here at KU... ANOTHER STRANGE COINCIDENCE!
I wholeheartedly agree that the players get more than just an education. The value of their likeness certainly increases from going to college. But don't pretend that the college doesn't benefit from good players coming. Because that is just plain false. The proof is right there in the numbers. A good team is worth several millions of dollars more than a bad team. That is player added value.
It will be proven clear again, the value of CBB, as players continue to flock to play the game.
But everyone should be able to make a living if they are skilled enough.
Of course, we'll continue to hear the whining from those that choose to play CBB.
Heard today on the radio the opinion that players should be able to control their likeness. Guess what? They can. But not if they choose to sign on the dotted line and play CBB. It is the act of playing CBB that gives their likeness value. A little known fact ...
I mean, it’s clear the players are worth something if men are willing to commit felonies to pay them under the table...
Gotta love some Big Dave. I will admit, I was harsh on Self recently about recruiting sketchy guys after the latest Vick debacle. But, we really do have some great characters on this team. I think, next year or the year after, will go down as a lot of people's favorite team. Just so many guys that seem like hard workers and good people. Ochai, Dotson, Dave, Garrett and Mitch would all be fan favorite types of guys on teams by themselves. We are so lucky to have them all together.
The more I watch/read, I think my favorite thing about him is he's basically ambidextrous. Natural lefty that shoots with his right.
Watching his old Euro - U16 tape - looks a lot like what Svi did over there. He was basically the PG and easily the best player and took all of the shots and just scored way too easy. I'm glad that he is playing in the US now at an academy.
@kjayhawks I think it is more the staff holding Zion out, knowing that losing one game is worth having him the remainder of the season and would rather make sure he is healthy than risk a more serious injury with him.
This like the 3rd game he supposedly is "hurt", he's not a team player and that's what will prevent them from title. They are one of the most talented teams I've ever seen in college.
I disagree with this so much. Zion plays his ass off. I wish we had a OAD play as hard as he doez
It was the best that we have seen Tristan Enaruna play to date as he looked like a legitimate NBA Draft target while competing against some of the most touted international prospects. Enaruna sports a great frame that he should fill out and while he has been knocked for his toughness in the past, he did show the capacity to play through contact and take the bump before finishing at the basket.
Eraruna remains at his best as an ambidextrous playmaker in the frontcourt that can throw precise passes on the go and also convert on nifty off-handed runners in the lane. What put things over the top was his consistent perimeter jumper that we had never seen before. He was one of the biggest stock boosters in Charlotte. The Netherlands native is currently hearing the most from Creighton, Kansas, Miami, Texas and Texas Tech.
Confidence can affect your shot. It can affect whether or when you shoot. But, confidence shouldn't really come into play fighting for position, battling for rebounds, diving for the loose balls and so on.
I can agree with or at least understand most of what you wrote. But this, I do not. Confidence influences your entire game. It's funny how well a guy can play for an entire game if he hits a few shots to start the game. On both ends.
While I think to most, it looks as though Q has a lack of effort, I would argue that isn't the case. He basically doesn't contribute, as you pointed out. But I really don't think it is due to a lack of effort. I think he has a lack of aggressiveness DUE to his lack of confidence. At this point, I think all of his basketball instincts are being second guessed.There are times it literally looks like he has never played the game, and it leaves you scratching your head. It isn't like he has zero basketball IQ. You see him make a great pass almost every game.
The moment we see Q quit thinking and just start playing, he will be a 15 PPG, 5 Ast guy. I have no doubt that he is capable of it.
@Kcmatt7 You said, "OADs have not been good to Self."
Maybe, if we are just looking from the outside, Self has not been good to OADs.
It's long been my position. Self is not the best manager of the OAD player. We've had one really good one that fit our team, seemed to satisfy Bill Self (a big one), was not a drama queen, and was a team player -- Josh Jackson.
Oh I fully agree with this.
Bill Self is a break them down, build them up coach. He is incapable of developing a player over just one year's time.
From what I know about the program, Bill Self is as hard on his players as anyone in the country. Several times in the past 15 years has he almost literally come to blows with players. I do not think most OAD players respond well to this. Hell, basically no freshman respond to this under Self. Only the truly special players who come here with a chip on their shoulders have exceeded expectations as a freshman.
Because of Bill's style of coaching and player development, I do not think OAD guys ultimately give him their best. They know all they have to do is survive Self, put up 10 points a game, flash some potential, and they are out of here. As Self put it with Josh, "he unpacked his bags." Which is why JJ was the best OAD under Self to date.
It is certainly a problem with most of the OADs we recruit. Henry, Preston, Cliff, Diallo, Selby, Oubre and Wiggins were all guys who 100% took money already and knew they were going pro no matter what. So Self's style doesn't work with them. Calling those guys every name in the book is not going to motivate them. Challenging their manhood does nothing for them.
But, this is the style that Self has chosen for his program.
There is another style of coaching philosophy though. There is break them down. But then there is also what I'll refer to as feeding the ego.
This is the K and Cal approach with young players.
These guys come in, knowing they are the greatest players in CBB. And K and Cal continue telling them that. They pat them on the back. The leave them in for 30 minutes a game and tell them no shot is a bad shot. Eventually, this does two things.
The first, it build their confidence. They aren't worried if they screw up, they just continue playing basketball and will fix their mistakes later or learn from them for the next time.
The second, it creates a scenario where the players then crave praise. They need the praise. So they play harder. RJ plays harder because Zion got K's praise for doing something because he needs the praise. Herro stays in the gym because Baker was getting praise for his shooting. The players start craving this praise. And that is how the coaches are able to push their buttons.
We have seen that this second strategy doesn't always work. Some guys just aren't competitive enough to push themselves. Sometimes freshman just aren't physically capable of carrying a team. But, as we have seen when either of them are able to put together a special group of OADs, they become exceptional teams.
Now, back to Q. As we have talked about, Self has given him quite a long leash.... But I sort of think that is a facade. Self is giving him PT. At the same time, I think Self is likely harder on him than anyone else on the team. What do you think film sessions are like? What do you think practices are like? I firmly believe Self absolutely destroyed Q's confidence very early in the season. He broke him.
Watch just a minute of this video :
Have you, even once, seen Q do anything remotely close to anything in this video? Look at the flare. Look at the confidence. Look at the ELEVATION. Look at the attacking of the rim. You can see the talent. Hell, he looks 100 times more athletic in this video than at any point this season.
The Q we have right now looks like he had a head injury that made him forget how to play basketball. He seems so worried that he's going to do something wrong and get the stick from Self that he's not playing with any bit of confidence. He is so concerned with where he is supposed to be on the court, that making instinctual plays at this point is impossible.
To me, Q carries himself like a neglected child who only wants to here "I love you" from his dad. But he never did hear it. So now we are stuck with this lifeless version of Q who may never reach his full potential, and it certainly appears like he won't this season. It's unfortunate, as I think Q does have the abilities to be a great player, and I think this team is that one player short of being able to do something potentially special in the tournament...
Josh on the other hand, no bueno. He looks like he will get washed out soon.
You also forgot Henry. Who washed out. Diallo who seems like he is likely on a path to overseas. Cliff never had a chance. Selby washed right out.
OADs have not been good to Self. I don't think you ever stop recruiting the best players though. You just can't recruit sketchy ones. Which is basically all the ones we have landed.. Which is why we are in the trouble we currently are in.
Certainly the numbers can't account for a team on the upswing and gaining chemistry. I know the last 3 opponents haven't been great but we all know what we are seeing post Vick. I don't know what is holding KU back at #18 but I don't think its accurate.
Agreed. And they don't value SOS as much as I think they should.
It's just hard for me to believe that the team with the #1 SOS that only has 6 losses is ranked behind the #2 SOS that has 8 losses. To me, that is proof of overvaluing the margin of victory.
Of course, if everything ends up seeded the way it should, than perhaps I have no issues. It might even put teams like Buffalo, Lipscomb, Utah State, etc in more accurately seeded positions.
@HighEliteMajor It appears that way. The margin of victory being more involved is both helping and hurting the model. Part of it is that there is just no effective way to judge a team that plays the schedule KU plays vs Lipscomb. Either you devalue SOS and overvalue other factors, or vice-versa.
